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Prediction markets for Coding Arena

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

Will Fable remain at the top of the coding ranking?

Jun 30, 9:15 AMDec 31, 10:05 AM

32.08%chance

193014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

154

Where will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?

Sep 30, 2:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5264

OptionProbability

Gemini 4 Pro 5-8 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro 0-4 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro ≥9 points worse

Gemini 4 Pro scores higher than the prior leading model

91

3

3

2

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

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