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Top stories

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Coding

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5448956

OptionProbability

≥3x

1.2-1.4x

2.5-3x

2-2.5x

1.4-1.6x

1-1.2x

1.8-2x

0.8-1x

1.6-1.8x

<0.8x

32

28

12

8

7

4

4

2

2

1

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.76%chance

4114764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14172

7056

AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2027?

Feb 12, 2:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.47%chance

5211082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4157

241

Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?

May 13, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.83%chance

315588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3263

228

By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?

Jan 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.62%chance

344443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

301

Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before 2027?

Jun 25, 4:00 PMJan 2, 12:59 AM

52.9%chance

193601

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

944

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

Will Elon Musk become left-coded again before 2035?

Feb 4, 1:46 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

16.94%chance

311249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1243

922

Will the METR AI coding uplift market be resolved based on the Feb 2026 updated estimate?

Feb 24, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.78%chance

101233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1112

655

Will Visual Studio Code be the most popular IDE in every Stack Overflow Developer Survey until 2030?

Apr 10, 3:20 PMDec 31, 1:05 PM

42.53%chance

17776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

849

Will the "Stepped Up Basis" rule be eliminated in the US federal tax code before 2035?

Aug 28, 8:27 PMSep 5, 3:59 AM

31.16%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM

74.74%chance

18329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

960

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