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Top stories

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Authors

4

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Coding

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4177849

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

77

70

61

58

24

9

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4640710

OptionProbability

1.6-1.8x

1.4-1.6x

1.2-1.4x

1.8-2x

2-2.5x

≥3x

2.5-3x

1-1.2x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

19

17

15

14

10

9

7

6

3

1

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2867

552

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.52%chance

3913685

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14096

7094

AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2027?

Feb 12, 2:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.47%chance

5211082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4157

241

By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?

Jan 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.62%chance

344443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

301

Will Claude Code support AGENTS.md in 2026?

Feb 7, 7:19 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62%chance

253062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.18%chance

232776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

964

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before July?

Mar 1, 9:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57.74%chance

181318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

856

Will Visual Studio Code be the most popular IDE in every Stack Overflow Developer Survey until 2030?

Apr 10, 3:20 PMDec 31, 1:05 PM

42.53%chance

17776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

849

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM

74.74%chance

18329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

960

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