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Top stories

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.1 Sweeps LM Arena AI Benchmarks

Authors

4

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Coding

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4281215

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

81

77

70

65

51

20

5

What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?

Jan 16, 8:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5345534

OptionProbability

≥3x

2.5-3x

2-2.5x

1.6-1.8x

1.8-2x

1.4-1.6x

1.2-1.4x

1-1.2x

0.8-1x

<0.8x

23

14

13

12

12

11

8

5

2

1

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.97%chance

11626804

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2867

552

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.52%chance

4013689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14097

7094

AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2027?

Feb 12, 2:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.47%chance

5211082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4157

241

Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?

May 19, 1:01 AMJul 19, 1:00 AM

58.95%chance

496593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1198

835

By 2030, will over 50% of software development projects be primarily created by AI, with minimal human coding?

Jan 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.62%chance

344443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1628

301

Will Claude Code support AGENTS.md in 2026?

Feb 7, 7:19 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.21%chance

273092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

813

Will Anthropic natively integrate image generation into Claude and/or Claude Code in 2026?

Feb 6, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42%chance

253085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

851

Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?

May 13, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.49%chance

242578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

999

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM

74.74%chance

18329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

960

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