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Prediction markets for Collab

Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?

Jan 14, 1:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.44%chance

7412334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

1123

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2494

1805

Will there be a One Piece collaboration with Fortnite by the end of 2026?

Mar 6, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67%chance

526191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

451

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.01%chance

285333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

824

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

May 22, 7:01 AMDec 31, 7:56 AM

404363

OptionProbability

Smart speaker (Amazon Echo-style)

Earbuds

Other

Pen

AR/VR Goggles

Phone

Watch

Wearable badge

34

27

24

15

0

0

0

0

Will Elon Musk actually ship a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?

Mar 19, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.84%chance

663950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1489

644

Will there be a collab between Manifold and Kinnu before 2027?

Apr 4, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.33%chance

151252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

66

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be collaborating with Anthropic by EOY 2027?

Apr 13, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.25%chance

8357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

296

34

How common will Jury Nullification be in the following years, according to a funded collaborative review?

May 1, 4:16 AMMar 2, 7:59 AM

589

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2024

2025

2029

33

30

26

26

20

Between 2030 and 2035 there will be evidence of different models of neural network collaborating better with eachother

Jun 22, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

76

64

Will the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration publish evidence of "gravitational wave echoes" by EOY 2030

Mar 12, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will a video featuring a collaboration between Corridor Crew and Red Letter Media be posted before the end of 2028?

May 6, 12:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.99%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

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