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Prediction markets for Collectibles

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?

Nov 25, 11:02 PMDec 30, 4:59 PM

22.63%chance

3613167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18572

2727

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?

Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

79.7%chance

141295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

977

Who will break the 5/5 stranglehold on Super Mario 64 speedrunning and collect the world record bounty?

Feb 18, 1:32 AMAug 28, 6:34 PM

161244

OptionProbability

Weegee

Benji

Karin

Other

Slipperynip

Parsee (秋珈嶺奈)

Treybordo

cjrokokomero

GTM

Cheese

34

29

9

8

5

4

3

3

3

3

Will we collectively be able to bring all markets on Manifold above 10 traders?

Feb 21, 7:50 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13%chance

29770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

628

67

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

Feb 9, 10:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.85%chance

15544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

873

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

987

Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?

Dec 15, 9:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

81.15%chance

9237

OptionVotes

NO

YES

428

168

Will the EU directly collect a tax before 2035?

May 3, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.7%chance

6191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will Canada pass a Warrantless mass data collection law, as part of Bill C-22, in 2026?

May 23, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.25%chance

563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

Will Pokemon take action against the Pokenot collectible card project by Dysfunctional Passholder by end of 2026?

Dec 7, 6:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.78%chance

951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will chatGPT (or an analogue) be able to query the entire text of anyone's entire Goodreads collection list by EOY 2027?

Feb 22, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.22%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

56

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