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Prediction markets for Collections

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

By 2030 will 𝕏 show clear evidence of becoming a collective consciousness?

Nov 25, 11:02 PMDec 30, 4:59 PM

39.22%chance

318867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14255

4619

Will Armenia withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) by the end of 2027?

Oct 26, 4:29 AMDec 31, 4:59 AM

79.7%chance

141295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

977

Who will break the 5/5 stranglehold on Super Mario 64 speedrunning and collect the world record bounty?

Feb 18, 1:32 AMApr 26, 6:34 PM

10654

OptionProbability

Weegee

Benji

Karin

Other

Slipperynip

Parsee (秋珈嶺奈)

Treybordo

cjrokokomero

GTM

Cheese

23

17

15

9

8

6

5

5

5

5

Will we collectively be able to bring all markets on Manifold above 10 traders?

Feb 21, 7:50 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17%chance

27593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

551

81

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about data collected from people's brain signals?

Feb 9, 10:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

48.85%chance

15544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

873

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

987

will prerat be around and collecting mana from manifold markets in 100 years?

Feb 24, 6:03 AMFeb 24, 6:59 AM

14.24%chance

8304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

439

133

Will the Smithsonian Institute sell, destroy, or otherwise deaccession parts of its collection by the end of 2026?

Mar 28, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4160

OptionProbability

1 or more item deaccessioned

10 or more items deaccessioned

100 or more items deaccessioned

5 or more items specifically destroyed

1 or more item deaccessioned specifically for "improper ideology"

69

50

36

23

17

Will more than 5% of p(doom) come alone from autistic people collectively not known to de-escalate when they could have?

Sep 21, 8:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.59%chance

365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

48

Will Pokemon take action against the Pokenot collectible card project by Dysfunctional Passholder by end of 2026?

Dec 7, 6:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.78%chance

951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will chatGPT (or an analogue) be able to query the entire text of anyone's entire Goodreads collection list by EOY 2027?

Feb 22, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.22%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

90

56

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