OptionProbability
Will the venue be in Europe?
Will any game feature an opening move other than 1. e4 or 1. d4?
Will White win more games than Black?
Will a player who loses a game eventually win the match?
Will there be a streak of 4 or more consecutive draws?
Will the match be decided before Game 14?
Will the match be tied (e.g., 1–1 or 2–2) after the first four games?
Will any game exceed 100 moves?
Will there be 4 or more decisive (non-draw) games in the classical portion?
There will be more decisive games than the previous Championship (5)
Will the match be decided by a margin of 2 or more points in the classical portion?
Will Magnus Carlsen provide official commentary for at least one game? (Stays on any stream for >= 45 minutes)
Will Game 1 or Game 2 be a decisive result (not a draw)?
Will Gukesh win a game immediately following a loss?
Gukesh retains his WC title
Will it be decided by tiebreaks?
The "Home Field" Factor: Will the venue be in either India or Uzbekistan?
Will the match begin before November 1, 2026?
99
84
68
65
64
63
62
54
48
43
41
37
35
31
28
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
944
676
Green
Blue
Red
White
Black
57
34
4
2
Yellow
Magenta/Pink
Orange
Purple
Cyan
16
0
181
159
131
76
101