OptionProbability
Will the venue be in Europe?
Will any game feature an opening move other than 1. e4 or 1. d4?
Will White win more games than Black?
Will the match be decided before Game 14?
Will a player who loses a game eventually win the match?
Will there be a streak of 4 or more consecutive draws?
Will the match be tied (e.g., 1–1 or 2–2) after the first four games?
Will there be 4 or more decisive (non-draw) games in the classical portion?
Will any game exceed 100 moves?
There will be more decisive games than the previous Championship (5)
Will the match be decided by a margin of 2 or more points in the classical portion?
Will Magnus Carlsen provide official commentary for at least one game? (Stays on any stream for >= 45 minutes)
Will Game 1 or Game 2 be a decisive result (not a draw)?
Will Gukesh win a game immediately following a loss?
Will it be decided by tiebreaks?
Gukesh retains his WC title
Will the match begin before November 1, 2026?
The "Home Field" Factor: Will the venue be in either India or Uzbekistan?
100
84
68
66
65
64
62
53
44
43
41
37
35
34
31
1
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1405
433
Blue
Green
Red
White
Black
52
3
Yellow
Magenta/Pink
Orange
Purple
Cyan
16
2
181
159
131
76
101
99