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Prediction markets for Combat

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

46.78%chance

589636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

938

How many Hamas combatants will be killed in the 2023 Israel-Hamas war

Nov 17, 5:54 AMNov 1, 6:59 AM

408686

OptionProbability

15000+

10000 - 15000

5000 - 10000

2000 - 5000

1000 - 2000

Other

91

5

2

1

0

0

US confirms use of nuclear earth-penetrating weapon in combat by end of 2028?

Mar 28, 6:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.91%chance

177385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1888

530

Will European Troops Enter Combat in Ukraine Before 2026?

Mar 5, 2:01 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

5.73%chance

397272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4055

247

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?

Jun 10, 4:08 PMJan 2, 3:59 PM

11.6%chance

324675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2761

362

Does an untrained combatant with a spear beat one with a sword?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.72%chance

273767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

839

Will Zelenskyy and Putin agree to engage in single combat to decide the fate of Ukraine?

Feb 19, 2:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1.07%chance

202826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2919

919

By 2050, will autonomous robots completely replace human soldiers in frontline combat roles?⚔️🤖⚔️

Feb 3, 1:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.56%chance

192233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1595

851

Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?

Feb 18, 1:33 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.44%chance

191700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1635

893

[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?

Nov 14, 2:24 PMJan 2, 7:00 PM

22.46%chance

121296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

153

By 2030, will there be an bottom-up trained AI/bot in Runescape that reaches Combat Level 50 (bypassing Runescape's natural bot-detection algorithms)?

Jan 1, 7:36 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.03%chance

451249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

814

Will humanoid robots be deployed to combat before 2035?

Feb 3, 11:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

48.43%chance

29631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

965

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