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Prediction markets for ComEd Four

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Jan 25, 12:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.74%chance

21426846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4896

1014

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Nov 17, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.88%chance

6610019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

747

Will any of Trump’s trials end in a hung jury?

Mar 28, 1:41 AMDec 29, 7:59 AM

3.48%chance

298187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4683

128

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.59%chance

344316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

715

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.09%chance

251736

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

741

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

241202

OptionProbability

#3 – “Stalemate”

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

None of them

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

27

22

20

16

15

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.57%chance

26867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

904

Will Alexander Zverev win a major before he retires?

Sep 4, 2:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.4%chance

6746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1267

789

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

Will Grand Slam Track successfully host at least one meet in 2026?

Jul 25, 3:03 AMDec 31, 8:36 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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