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Prediction markets for ComEd Four

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Jan 25, 12:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.91%chance

21928356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4160

1161

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Nov 17, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.88%chance

6610019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

747

Will any of Trump’s trials end in a hung jury?

Mar 28, 1:41 AMDec 29, 7:59 AM

2.12%chance

299343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5839

95

A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.

Oct 1, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

18.94%chance

505679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

852

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.66%chance

354516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

915

Who will win the Democratic Primary in the IL-9 District.

Nov 1, 5:55 PMMar 17, 11:59 PM

92477

OptionProbability

Daniel Biss

Kat Abugazaleh

Laura Fine

Mike Simmons

Other

Phil Andrew

45

43

4

3

3

2

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.04%chance

261911

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

850

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

251303

OptionProbability

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

28

25

19

15

13

Will Alexander Zverev win a major before he retires?

Sep 4, 2:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.19%chance

71034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1419

705

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.57%chance

26867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

904

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will Grand Slam Track successfully host at least one meet in 2026?

Jul 25, 3:03 AMDec 31, 8:36 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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