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Comet News

    Prediction markets for Comet

    What will be true of The Winds of Winter? [ADD RESPONSES]

    Mar 2, 6:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    498620

    OptionProbability

    Length is over 500 pages

    A character is burned alive

    The wait for the book is longer than for the previous 4 books combined (i.e. it is not released before 26th June 2026)

    Word count is greater than any previous book in the series

    Daenerys arrives in Westeros (Dragonstone counts)

    Cersei will cause an explosion in King's Landing using wildfire

    Jon Snow is revealed to be the child of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark

    Arya Stark will physically return to Westeros (warging into Nymeria not counted)

    A PoV character sees a literal kraken (excluding dreams, visions etc.)

    No new point of view characters outside of prologue/epilogue

    Lysono Maar will be revealed to be the same person as Varys the Spider

    There is an epilogue

    The "Pink Letter/Bastard Letter" will be revealed as having been penned by Mance Rayder

    Jon Snow's dead body will be wighted by the Others

    An Other will be sighted south of the Wall

    Young Griff will be revealed to be Illyrio Mopatis' son

    A POV character (excluding Prologue/Epilogue) has exactly 1 chapter

    Bran will witness/interact with the historical figure known as Bran the Builder during his explorations using the weirwood net

    The Harpy is revealed to be Galazza Galare (the Green Grace)

    The U.S. mass market paperback will be released in two volumes

    All living Stark children (of Ned) will survive

    A "Red Comet" will be sighted in the sky again (in the timeline proper—Bran weirwood dreams excluded)

    Daenerys will destroy the house with the red door

    Benjen Stark will be found alive

    Jon Snow ceases to be a POV character after his resurrection

    Varys will gaslight Daenerys about her birth/lineage and accuse her of not being a Targaryen

    A dragon dies

    It's published after the author's death

    Quentyn Martell is revealed to still be alive and has a POV chapter

    Littlefinger will be killed by Lady Stoneheart/The Brotherhood Without Banners

    Daario will reveal himself to be the same person as Euron Greyjoy

    Release date will be announced during 2024

    99

    99

    99

    92

    92

    90

    84

    80

    78

    74

    74

    69

    69

    66

    63

    57

    55

    50

    45

    45

    44

    40

    35

    32

    26

    25

    24

    19

    18

    10

    1

    0

    Composition of 3I/ATLAS

    Aug 9, 2:27 AMJun 30, 2:20 AM
    71818

    OptionProbability

    CO/CO2 Dominated Comet

    Other / Indeterminate

    Water-dominated comet

    Water-Only Comet

    Non-cometary

    Artificial/Technological

    83

    7

    5

    3

    2

    1

    What will be the next astronomical object a human lands on?

    Aug 27, 3:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    211698

    OptionProbability

    Earth's Moon

    an asteroid or comet

    Mars

    Other

    Venus

    a moon of a different planet

    96

    2

    1

    1

    0

    0

    What will be the second next astronomical object a human lands on?

    Aug 27, 4:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    15812

    OptionProbability

    Mars

    an asteroid or comet

    Earth's Moon

    a moon of a different planet

    Other

    Venus

    58

    28

    7

    4

    2

    1

    What will be the second next astronomical object a human orbits around?

    Aug 27, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    12799

    OptionProbability

    Mars

    Earth's Moon

    an asteroid or comet

    Venus

    a moon of a different planet

    Other

    67

    12

    12

    7

    1

    1

    Will our industrial society collapse before the next visit of Haley's comet (28th july 2061)?

    Dec 16, 12:29 AMJul 28, 9:59 PM
    29.07%chance
    8233

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    232

    123

    Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns?

    Jan 28, 5:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    62.47%chance
    7225

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    202

    85

    Which of the six mission themes will NASA's New Frontiers Five mission be selected from?

    Apr 1, 6:31 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM
    2147

    OptionProbability

    Saturn Atmospheric Probe

    Comet Surface Sample Return

    Io Observer

    Lunar Geophysical Network

    Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return

    Enceladus Exploration

    34

    33

    11

    9

    6

    6

    Which mission theme will NASA's New Frontiers Six mission be selected from?

    Apr 1, 12:32 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
    2138

    OptionProbability

    Centaur Orbiter and Lander

    Ceres Sample Return

    Comet surface sample return

    Saturn probe

    Enceladus multiple flyby

    Io Observer

    Lunar Geophysical Network

    Titan orbiter

    Venus In Situ Explorer

    Lunar South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return

    22

    21

    12

    12

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    0

    Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?

    Oct 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    290

    OptionProbability

    Jupiter

    Neptune

    Saturn

    Uranus

    Mercury

    Venus

    Mars

    An asteroid

    A dwarf planet

    A comet

    Other

    34

    28

    14

    11

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Will CNSA's Tianwen-2 mission successfully rendezvous with a comet?

    Sep 23, 5:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    74.72%chance
    465

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    179

    104

    Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

    Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Mercury

    Venus

    Mars

    An asteroid

    Jupiter

    Saturn

    Uranus

    Neptune

    A dwarf planet

    A comet

    Other

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

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