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Prediction markets for Commitments of Traders

Sen. Fetterman leaves Democratic Party before 2028 election?

May 16, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.42%chance

293353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1266

790

UK Labour builds how many homes by July 4, 2029?

May 17, 11:09 PMJul 3, 11:59 PM

82279

OptionProbability

1,000,000 - 1,249,999

750,000 - 999,999

1,250,000 - 1,499,999

Below 750,000

1,500,000 - 1,749,999

1,750,000 - 1,999,999

2,000,000 - 2,250,000

Above 2,250,000

28

23

16

15

6

4

4

4

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

88.58%chance

17862

OptionVotes

NO

YES

279

36

Will Market Manipulation Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?

Mar 21, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11249

OptionProbability

Other harms

Injuries that don't result in deaths

At least one death

100

39

31

Will the Iran deal hold over 3 months?

Jun 23, 7:58 PMSep 23, 7:56 PM

36%chance

8236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

OpenAI's for-profit pivot intentionally designed to provoke AGI governance debate before AGI?

May 8, 6:48 PMDec 31, 6:47 PM

10.31%chance

6195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

34

Will any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.11%chance

3111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

73

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

82.65%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

63

Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026?

May 6, 10:13 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

60.53%chance

371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

61

Will any sovereign-AI deal ≥$10B be announced before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.3%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

98

Will any single datacenter PPA ≥1GW be announced by a hyperscaler before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.35%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.65%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

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