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Prediction markets for Commonwealth

Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?

Aug 10, 1:47 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.59%chance

2128996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3186

589

Will Commonwealth Fusion System's SPARC fusion reactor achieve "commercially relevant net energy from fusion" by Jan 1st, 2026?

Jan 25, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.91%chance

3614587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2553

695

Will any Commonwealth countries become republics during 2024 or 2025?

Nov 26, 2:08 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.21%chance

151547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2309

765

Will the 2026 Commonwealth Games go ahead?

Jul 20, 1:16 AMMar 16, 12:00 PM

97.03%chance

91029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1176

48

Will there still be at least three Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:08 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

94.76%chance

13757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

934

What will be the next country to join the Commonwealth of Nations?

Feb 20, 1:26 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

8396

OptionProbability

Nepal

Other

Oman

Benin

Burundi

Somaliland

Scotland

Commonwealth dissolves / ceases to exist

USA

Ireland

Zimbabwe

South Sudan

Suriname

Bahrain

Cambodia

Egypt

Libya

Sudan

Yemen

Kuwait

39

31

10

10

3

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Commonwealth Fusion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?

Feb 27, 5:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.37%chance

9385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

456

131

Will any country successfully join the Commonwealth before 2030?

May 8, 11:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

8253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

158

Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

75.32%chance

11201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

981

Will there still be at least six Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:08 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

88.69%chance

6160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

330

125

Will there still be at least twelve Commonwealth Realms in 2028?

May 8, 12:03 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

168

107

Will any country leave the Commonwealth before 2030?

May 8, 11:47 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

79.83%chance

7126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

104

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