Community Edition News

NO

Other

Luka Donkic

Pope Francis

Other

Joe Biden

Vladimir Putin

Michelle Trachtenberg

Gene Hackman

David Lynch

a big anthropic shadow

A small group made it impossible for anyone else to develop AI.

A humanitarian catastrophe hampered AI progress.

AI never got the capability to cause extinction.

AI became safer as it got more powerful without much human effort outside of some RLHFing.

Cognitive enhancement helped a lot.

Humanity coordinated on having a sufficiently long and strong AI moratorium.

Brain uploading helped a lot.

Jono from 2023 does not think I (the one being polled in 2100) qualify as a person.

A plan to mitigate AI risks succeeded and already had a post about it on the alignmentforum on 2023.

Open source AI created an egalitarian world where no one/few got in a position to (accidently) kill everyone.

Nobody wanted to develop AI anymore.

Other

GTA VI

YES

NO

YES

NO

7. Before 2050, there is an AI catastrophe and the response IS insufficient

5. Before 2050, an AI system IS shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

1. Before 2030, there IS an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

3. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES doubles every 2 years

6. Before 2050, an AI system IS NOT shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior

2. Before 2030, there IS NOT an AI-caused administrative disempowerment

4. Between 2023-2030, deep learning revenue DOES NOT double every 2 years

YES

NO