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Prediction markets for Community Notes

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10771139062

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2028-2029

2027-2028

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2049-2050

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2026-2027

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

18

13

11

8

7

6

6

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?

Jun 1, 1:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.49%chance

5112934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

623

16

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

157840

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9428

2859

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.68%chance

133709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6632

3220

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.58%chance

462286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

933

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2027?

Jan 17, 5:33 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.05%chance

382219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

437

Which major social media platforms will implement community notes by 2030? (FIXED)

Jan 8, 12:53 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

71094

OptionProbability

Facebook (the timeline, not messenger)

TikTok

Instagram

YouTube

Bluesky

Reddit

Hacker News

95

88

83

53

48

47

27

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.59%chance

6415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4357

3816

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.23%chance

16261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

994

Link to a market in a Twitter Community Note

Oct 24, 10:10 PM

00

Prediction markets in Community Notes. Please help me improve my brief

Oct 20, 11:43 AM

00

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