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Prediction markets for Community Notes

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10681116010

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2049-2050

2039-2040

2040-2041

2028-2029

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2026-2027

2027-2028

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

11

10

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.58%chance

156839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8427

3028

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

41.58%chance

462286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

933

Which major social media platforms will implement community notes by 2030? (FIXED)

Jan 8, 12:53 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

71076

OptionProbability

Facebook (the timeline, not messenger)

TikTok

Instagram

YouTube

Bluesky

Reddit

Hacker News

96

88

83

53

48

47

27

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

In Mario Kart World, will players be able to reliably avoid highway tracks in public matchmaking in 2026?

Jan 13, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.51%chance

372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1052

951

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

Will "Notes on the Long Tasks METR paper, from a HC..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 22, 4:07 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Link to a market in a Twitter Community Note

Oct 24, 10:10 PM

00

Prediction markets in Community Notes. Please help me improve my brief

Oct 20, 11:43 AM

00

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