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Prediction markets for Community Rewards

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.58%chance

156839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8427

3028

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6132

3376

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

16.12%chance

112352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2281

438

Will "Realistic Reward Hacking Induces Different an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 12, 9:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

How many years after 2000 will P vs PSPACE be resolved?

Mar 10, 5:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7240

OptionProbability

Above 30

Above 35

Above 40

Above 45

Above 55

Above 50

76

74

41

31

24

23

Will a major social media network adopt product changes to prioritize posts that are truthful and accurate by 2028?

Mar 14, 4:37 PMMar 22, 3:59 AM

41.45%chance

10236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

989

Will "METR's Observations of Reward Hacking in Rece..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 26, 12:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

Will "The Purpose of a System is what it Rewards" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 30, 2:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.2%chance

4131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

811

Will "Natural emergent misalignment from reward hac..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 22, 12:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will "Training a Reward Hacker Despite Perfect Labels" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 26, 12:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Will "We need a field of Reward Function Design" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 10, 5:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

How could I improve my manifund application? "Community Epistemic Tools" (Rewards for good answers)

Oct 3, 11:09 AM

00

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