Community Round News
Prediction markets for Community Round
How interesting are my different ideas for LessWrong posts, and when will I post them?
Jun 18, 2:24 PMDec 31, 2:03 PM
148605
OptionProbability
100
100
100
86
80
77
75
73
69
67
64
64
58
57
57
56
54
54
52
50
50
48
44
0
Name new popular, positive terms for genetic technology use in oneself or one's offspring [2k subsidy]
Apr 4, 7:57 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM
232962
OptionProbability
53
40
37
31
27
26
26
26
22
19
19
19
19
17
14
Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?
Aug 23, 4:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
14.43%chance
522883
OptionVotes
2109
648
On what year will Esmeralda have its first 50 non-staff permanent residents?
Oct 19, 5:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
72859
OptionProbability
33
30
26
20
20
19
18
17
17
17
13
11
Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?
Jan 21, 6:19 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
8.63%chance
7448
OptionVotes
325
31
Will "Conceptual Rounding Errors" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 29, 10:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
16.6%chance
2150
OptionVotes
1029
841
Will Substack's Community WeFunder Round Live Up To Its Valuation?
Apr 19, 12:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
35.73%chance
667
OptionVotes
154
113
OptionVotes
125
98

