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Prediction markets for Company Update

CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?

Nov 19, 4:36 PMNov 27, 7:59 AM

5826717

OptionProbability

Mark Zuckerberg at Meta

Jensen Huang at Nvidia

Dario Amodei at Anthropic

Elon Musk at Tesla

Sundar Pichai at Google

Ma Huateng at Tencent

Shantanu Narayen at Adobe

Andy Jassy at Amazon

Mary Barra at General Motors

Andrew Wilson at Electronic Arts

David Solomon at Goldman Sachs

Masayoshi Son at SoftBank

C. C. Wei at TSMC

Tim Cook at Apple

Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway

Doug McMillon at Walmart

Pat Gelsinger at Intel

Bob Iger at Disney

Herbert Diess at Volkswagen

Linda Yaccarino at Twitter

67

27

26

21

20

20

20

18

18

17

17

17

12

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Alvea develop a drug that reaches the market by the end of 2026?

Feb 10, 12:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.37%chance

2711614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4482

629

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.19%chance

828859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

798

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.03%chance

738853

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2588

1201

Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?

Mar 31, 8:47 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

85%chance

555798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1426

854

Will GPT-5 have over 100 trillion parameters?

Mar 4, 12:38 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.19%chance

195263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

641

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Japan have a general AI company with a valuation of $1 bil+ primarily doing research inside of its borders by 2028?

Jan 2, 7:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.77%chance

342241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

785

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

Nov 3, 2:03 PMJan 1, 8:43 AM

4.87%chance

141748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

478

Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?

Jan 10, 1:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.25%chance

20778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

940

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

The New York Times will have an article mentioning Herasight by the end of:

Aug 4, 3:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6158

OptionProbability

September 2026

December 2026

March 2026

June 2026

December 2025

September 2025

82

74

66

66

24

15

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