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Prediction markets for Company Update

CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?

Nov 19, 4:36 PMNov 27, 7:59 AM

5422040

OptionProbability

Mark Zuckerberg at Meta

Jensen Huang at Nvidia

Dario Amodei at Anthropic

Elon Musk at Tesla

Ma Huateng at Tencent

Sundar Pichai at Google

Shantanu Narayen at Adobe

Andy Jassy at Amazon

Mary Barra at General Motors

Doug McMillon at Walmart

David Solomon at Goldman Sachs

Masayoshi Son at SoftBank

Andrew Wilson at Electronic Arts

C. C. Wei at TSMC

Tim Cook at Apple

Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway

Bob Iger at Disney

Pat Gelsinger at Intel

Herbert Diess at Volkswagen

Linda Yaccarino at Twitter

65

26

23

23

19

18

18

17

17

16

16

16

14

11

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will Alvea develop a drug that reaches the market by the end of 2026?

Feb 10, 12:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.4%chance

2711564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4432

630

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.19%chance

828859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

798

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?

Mar 31, 8:47 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

93.02%chance

545462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2760

703

Will GPT-5 have over 100 trillion parameters?

Mar 4, 12:38 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.19%chance

195263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

641

Will xAI replace Anthropic's DoW deal?

Feb 26, 11:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.05%chance

285260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2992

334

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Japan have a general AI company with a valuation of $1 bil+ primarily doing research inside of its borders by 2028?

Jan 2, 7:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.77%chance

342241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

785

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

Nov 3, 2:03 PMJan 1, 8:43 AM

4.87%chance

141748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

478

Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?

Jan 10, 1:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

23.73%chance

19709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

961

Any company from AIM's Founding to Give's first batch get into YC before EOY 2027?

Mar 15, 11:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.29%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

97

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