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Prediction markets for Company Update

CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?

Nov 19, 4:36 PMNov 27, 7:59 AM

5318211

OptionProbability

Mark Zuckerberg at Meta

Jensen Huang at Nvidia

Elon Musk at Tesla

Dario Amodei at Anthropic

Ma Huateng at Tencent

Sundar Pichai at Google

Shantanu Narayen at Adobe

Andy Jassy at Amazon

Doug McMillon at Walmart

Mary Barra at General Motors

David Solomon at Goldman Sachs

Tim Cook at Apple

Masayoshi Son at SoftBank

Andrew Wilson at Electronic Arts

C. C. Wei at TSMC

Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway

Bob Iger at Disney

Pat Gelsinger at Intel

Herbert Diess at Volkswagen

Linda Yaccarino at Twitter

65

26

23

22

19

18

18

17

17

17

17

16

16

14

12

1

1

0

0

0

Will Alvea develop a drug that reaches the market by the end of 2026?

Feb 10, 12:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.41%chance

2611556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4424

630

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.51%chance

828854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1445

803

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

728703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2438

1224

Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?

Mar 31, 8:47 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

93.02%chance

545462

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2760

703

Will GPT-5 have over 100 trillion parameters?

Mar 4, 12:38 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.19%chance

195263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

641

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will Japan have a general AI company with a valuation of $1 bil+ primarily doing research inside of its borders by 2028?

Jan 2, 7:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.77%chance

342241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

785

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

Nov 3, 2:03 PMJan 1, 8:43 AM

5.01%chance

121690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2440

481

Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?

Jan 10, 1:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.9%chance

18659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

977

Is Intel going to be acquired before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:26 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60%chance

771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will Celeste from substack Celeste-land have worked at Anthropic by 1st Jan 2028

Feb 4, 7:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

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