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Company Update News

CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?

Nov 19, 4:36 PMNov 27, 7:59 AM

5826767

OptionProbability

Mark Zuckerberg at Meta

Jensen Huang at Nvidia

Dario Amodei at Anthropic

Elon Musk at Tesla

Sundar Pichai at Google

Ma Huateng at Tencent

Shantanu Narayen at Adobe

Andy Jassy at Amazon

Mary Barra at General Motors

David Solomon at Goldman Sachs

Masayoshi Son at SoftBank

Andrew Wilson at Electronic Arts

C. C. Wei at TSMC

Tim Cook at Apple

Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway

Doug McMillon at Walmart

Pat Gelsinger at Intel

Bob Iger at Disney

Herbert Diess at Volkswagen

Linda Yaccarino at Twitter

67

26

25

21

20

20

20

18

18

17

17

15

12

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Alvea develop a drug that reaches the market by the end of 2026?

Feb 10, 12:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.37%chance

2711614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4482

629

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

23.19%chance

828859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

798

Will Koi be the first species we uplift?

Dec 20, 7:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.02%chance

748854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2589

1201

When will Anduril Industries IPO?

May 29, 11:56 AMDec 31, 12:55 PM

216583

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q3 2027

Q4 2027

2028 or later

Q1 2027

Anduril will not IPO

Q4 2026

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q1 2026

Q2 2026

Q3 2026

26

22

12

12

11

8

5

1

1

1

1

1

Will GPT-5 have over 1 trillion parameters?

Mar 31, 8:47 PMJan 1, 9:00 AM

85%chance

555798

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1426

854

Will GPT-5 have over 100 trillion parameters?

Mar 4, 12:38 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4.19%chance

195263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

641

Will Japan have a general AI company with a valuation of $1 bil+ primarily doing research inside of its borders by 2028?

Jan 2, 7:41 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.72%chance

363149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2182

573

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Minecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?

Nov 3, 2:03 PMJan 1, 8:43 AM

4.87%chance

141748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

478

Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?

Jan 10, 1:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.25%chance

20778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

940

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

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