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Prediction markets for Compare Mode

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.34%chance

533171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

749

When will an open-source AI video model comparable to Sora from OpenAI be released?

Feb 16, 8:24 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

332542

OptionProbability

before 2027 (within ~3 years)

before 2026 (within ~2 years)

later/never

before 2025 (within ~1 year)

98

95

13

0

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-2 this decade?

Nov 15, 11:15 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

84%chance

171188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

903

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

Nov 15, 11:14 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

57.93%chance

221154

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1586

1220

Will AI usage in 2030 be split in tiers where the best and most expensive models are used rarely compared to cheaper and lower-quality models?

Dec 23, 9:10 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

83.36%chance

21941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1135

944

When will an open-source AI music model comparable to Udio be released?

Apr 12, 3:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19864

OptionProbability

before 2027 (within ~3 years)

before 2026 (within ~2 years)

later/never

before 2025 (within ~1 year)

91

71

7

0

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

Nov 15, 11:15 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

36.67%chance

14621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

978

Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 13, 5:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

27.56%chance

3338

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

482

Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Yudkowsky" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 7:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

49.54%chance

3300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

213

Will "My AI Model Delta Compared To Christiano" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 13, 5:39 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

27.56%chance

2132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

482

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