Competition Act News

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.69%chance

186390

OptionVotes

YES

5110

196

Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?

May 9, 11:26 PMAug 9, 11:25 PM

5.55%chance

93125

OptionVotes

YES

4125

242

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.46%chance

183013

OptionVotes

YES

1913

523

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.37%chance

222338

OptionVotes

YES

1439

697

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.71%chance

111813

OptionVotes

YES

2620

382

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

1689

592

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027?

Jun 22, 11:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.36%chance

13258

OptionVotes

YES

204

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Credit Card Competition act enacted before 2027?

Jan 13, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.15%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

104

Competition Act News

Prediction markets for Competition Act

Prediction markets for Competition Act

Prediction markets for Competition Act

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Will Sam Altman file a case against anthropic in next 3 months?

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Credit Card Competition act enacted before 2027?

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