Competition Act News

Israel participates in Eurovision 2026?

Sep 15, 5:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

97.31%chance

4218098

OptionVotes

YES

6010

166

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.38%chance

176141

OptionVotes

YES

5347

187

What colleges will I be accepted to, given I apply?

Jul 10, 11:28 PMSep 1, 11:09 PM

273445

OptionProbability

University of Illinois (note: i live in town and my dad is a professor)

UW Madison

University of Michigan

Harvey mudd college

University of Southern California

Northwestern (new addition!)

Rice university (new addition)

Williams college (new addition!)

UCLA

Carnegie Mellon University

Cornell (new addition!)

Stanford

University of chicago

MIT (new addition!)

Princeton

100

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.63%chance

173003

OptionVotes

YES

1903

525

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.58%chance

101613

OptionVotes

YES

2420

413

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.93%chance

171609

OptionVotes

YES

1023

980

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Will the Jones Act be amended or repealed to ease restrictions on cabotage within the US by 2032?

Jun 7, 4:18 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.22%chance

13396

OptionVotes

YES

322

208

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Credit Card Competition act enacted before 2027?

Jan 13, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.15%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

104

Competition Act News

Prediction markets for Competition Act

Prediction markets for Competition Act

Prediction markets for Competition Act

Israel participates in Eurovision 2026?

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

What colleges will I be accepted to, given I apply?

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will the Jones Act be amended or repealed to ease restrictions on cabotage within the US by 2032?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Credit Card Competition act enacted before 2027?

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