Competition Act News

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

YES

1294

776

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.79%chance

207906

OptionVotes

YES

7404

135

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.46%chance

183013

OptionVotes

YES

1913

523

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

131949

OptionVotes

YES

2439

410

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

121866

OptionVotes

YES

2380

420

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

1100

977

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

YES

1382

859

Will the Jones Act be amended or repealed to ease restrictions on cabotage within the US by 2032?

Jun 7, 4:18 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35.75%chance

14435

OptionVotes

YES

247

232

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

May 22, 11:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3180

OptionProbability

Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work

Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)

Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks

Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues

Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery

Credit Card Competition act enacted before 2027?

Jan 13, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.15%chance

337

OptionVotes

YES

104

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

YES

124

Competition Act News

Prediction markets for Competition Act

Prediction markets for Competition Act

Prediction markets for Competition Act

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will the Jones Act be amended or repealed to ease restrictions on cabotage within the US by 2032?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Which of Jack Clark's Oxford lecture AI predictions will come true?

Credit Card Competition act enacted before 2027?

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

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