Competition Act News

What colleges will I be accepted to, given I apply?

Jul 10, 11:28 PMSep 1, 11:09 PM

162891

OptionProbability

University of Illinois (note: i live in town and my dad is a professor)

UW Madison

University of Michigan

University of Southern California

Harvey mudd college

Northwestern (new addition!)

UCLA

Cornell (new addition!)

Carnegie Mellon University

Stanford

University of chicago

MIT (new addition!)

Princeton

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.73%chance

162887

OptionVotes

YES

2083

480

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.36%chance

152671

OptionVotes

YES

2663

375

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.48%chance

81553

OptionVotes

YES

2430

411

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

YES

1156

931

Will the Jones Act be amended or repealed to ease restrictions on cabotage within the US by 2032?

Jun 7, 4:18 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.22%chance

13396

OptionVotes

YES

322

208

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

Competition Act News

Prediction markets for Competition Act

Prediction markets for Competition Act

Prediction markets for Competition Act

What colleges will I be accepted to, given I apply?

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Will the Jones Act be amended or repealed to ease restrictions on cabotage within the US by 2032?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

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