OptionVotes
YES
NO
10867
351
OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
pass 500 or more executive orders
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
Stays alive
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
File lawsuit against a congressperson
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
have a journalist arrested
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
resume buying oil from Russia
Prosecute someone for flag burning
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
new blockade of a country
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
put his name on a ship in the navy
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Dep
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Pardon a convicted pedophile
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Pardon himself
Announce he’s running for a third term
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
ten or more protestors killed during term
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
stops all sanctions on Russia
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Causes derek chauvin's early release
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Causes Tina Peters' early release
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
all time high unemployment reached
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
add a new federal holiday in his honor
repeal Obamacare
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Enact price controls on groceries
Pardon p diddy
Add a citizenship question to the census
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
host putin at mar a lago
Nominate a family member to high office
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
take state ownership in an airline
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
ends black history month
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
take control of a part of ukraine
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
Replace his Vice President
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
force a former president to testify before Congress
expand the borders of the usa
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
actually disinter bodies from another country
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
orders arrests of any Biden family member
repeal an amendment
Salute Putin
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
make statements that are negative about labubu
Call for the end of the Senate
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
take control of a part of greenland
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
declares a white history month
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Implement a federal age of consent
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
fully nationalize an airline
Says 6 7 (or variant)
pardon derek chauvin
Raise the retirement age for social security
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Withdraw from NATO
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Call for the end of child marriage
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
Annex any part of Mexico
change the borders of a state
add a new state
Call for the end of the House of Reps
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
fauci in jail at least one week
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
ban trans people from holding federal offices
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
Implement a federal abortion ban
bans anime
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Wearing a white dress after labor day
bans 6 7
pardon george santos
100
100
99
95
94
88
86
86
85
82
82
81
81
77
75
74
74
74
74
72
72
71
71
69
67
67
66
65
65
65
63
62
62
60
59
58
55
55
55
52
52
52
51
50
50
49
49
47
47
46
45
44
42
42
42
42
42
41
40
39
39
39
39
36
35
35
35
35
35
34
33
33
33
33
32
31
31
31
30
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
26
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
20
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
At least one credible mainstream news source reports by EO2026 that the files are either partially redacted or partly missing or suspects the files were altered (opinion section OK)
However, the administration manages to blacken great parts of the files.
Something happens or is enforced by Trump to divert the attraction on other things.
By EOY26 Massie claims that the files have been altered or otherwise significantly not in compliance with the bill's requirements
At least five people with Wikipedia pages resign due to files
After blackened papers are made public, there will be a leakage of uncensored files.
Stacey Plaskett no longer a US House Delegate before 1 Feb 2027?
A MSM news source speculates partisan bias in redactions (opinion section OK) by EOY2026
Soon after release, the Trump DOJ launches a raft of investigations against political opponents named in the Epstein files.
An ongoing DOJ investigation triggered by Trump’s allegations involving Bill Clinton or others will result in the files being sealed and not publicly released despite the Epstein Transparency Act
Somebody gets prison time
George Stephanopoulos Leaves ABC before 4th of July 2026
Files suggest Epstein offered to cooperation/testimony against associates within 1 year of his death.
Someone in the November 2025 Supreme Court is mentioned in the files
Any F500 company’s market cap loses 10% within a week of an executive’s involvements with Epstein becoming known
Trump gets impeached in 2026 in part due to his involvement with Epstein
Any congressperson gets impeached/removed in 2026 in part due to their involvement with Epstein
"Bubba" photo released or leaked by EOY26
At least 10% of current (Nov. 19, '25) House Representatives leave office (by any means) before the next congress is sworn in
Trump admin vetoes the Nov 18 release
95
89
78
69
57
56
55
55
52
47
45
42
37
24
21
17
15
14
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3380
296
OptionProbability
Expansion of self-declared environmental licensing (e.g., PL 2159/21)
Regulation of the Tax Reform approved in 2023 (rules for the new IVA)
Amnesty for electoral fines for non-compliance with racial and gender quotas (e.g., PEC 9/23)
Time limit for the demarcation of Indigenous Lands (e.g., PEC 48/23 - "Marco Temporal das Terras Indígenas")
Legalization of gambling (e.g., PL 2234/22)
Constitutional prohibition of carrying any quantity of illicit drugs (e.g., PEC 45/23)
Some reform of military pensions
Mineral exploration in Conservation Units (e.g., PL 5822/19)
New law to regulate health plans (e.g., PL 7419/06)
Change of attribution for the demarcation of Indigenous Lands to Congress (e.g., PEC 59/23)
Reduction of the legal reserve proportion in the Amazon (e.g., PL 3334/23)
Prohibition of the reinstatement of Armed Forces members who leave the position to run in elections (e.g., PEC 42/23)
Attribution for states to legislate on the carrying and possession of firearms (e.g., PLP 108/23)
Change in percentages or rules for calculating the constitutional floor for health and/or education expenses
Return of the five-year bonus payment for the Public Ministry and public defenders (e.g., PEC 10/23)
Increase in the duration of paternity leave for all cases that currently have this right (e.g., PL 6216/23)
Criminalization of a legal hypothesis for abortion that is currently considered legal (e.g., PL 1904/24 - "PL do Estuprador")
Prohibition of plea bargains during preventive detention (e.g., PL 4372/16)
Creation of fixed-term mandates for Supreme Court justices (e.g., PEC 16/19)
Some increase in the responsibilities of digital platforms for false content ("PL das Fake News")
Obligation for digital platforms to pay for the distribution of journalistic content
End of re-election for executive authorities (e.g., PEC 15/07)
End of the Union's exclusive ownership of marine land (e.g., PEC 3/22 - "PEC das Praias")
Amnesty for those prosecuted for participating in the events of January 8, 2023 (e.g., PL 5064/23)
End of salary bonus ("Fim do abono salarial")
Impeachment of Lula
Impeachment of a Supreme Court Ministry
100
100
100
62
59
55
50
45
44
42
39
37
33
30
30
29
24
24
22
17
17
16
14
14
10
6
4
OptionProbability
Above 1
Above 5
Above 10
Above 15
Above 20
Above 30
Above 40
99
99
92
65
55
8
1
OptionProbability
Model reliability and accuracy
limited ability of humans to adapt to new technologies
Technical infrastructure limitations
Compliance and security
Costs and financial investment
Regulatory barriers
Data access and quality
Talent retention and training
Computing resource limitations
Energy consumption and/or sustainability
Data privacy concerns
Ethical considerations
No Bottlenecks
Human resistance
72
53
45
37
37
34
34
27
27
26
25
24
23
23
OptionProbability
Apple gets subjected to financial penalties
Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.
IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities
The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.
The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.
The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.
Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.
Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).
Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading
The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.
The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.
If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)
The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices
The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.
The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.
The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.
The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.
Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.
The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.
Compulsory API Access: Apple gets ordered to provide third-party developers with access to the same APIs and functionalities that its own apps use, which could be tracked by a compliance monitor appointed by the court.
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
OptionProbability
Customer Service Representative < 2028
Market Research Analyst < 2030
Compliance Officer < 2030
Human Resources Manager < 2030
Graphic Designer < 2028
Teacher < 2040
Judges < 2040
53
37
35
34
33
29
28
OptionProbability
The word “peace”
A list of countries responsible for monitoring implementation
A clear timeline for Hamas disarmament
Destruction of tunnel networks and weapons-production facilities
A mechanism to penalize Hamas non-compliance
An internationally funded weapons buy-back and reintegration program
The word “amnesty”
Handover of Hamas authority to a committee of Palestinians under international oversight
A condition requiring approval by the Israeli government before the agreement takes effect
The word “Trump” anywhere in the document
“voluntary reconciliation facilities” for Palestinian fighters to give up their weapons and receive amnesty
Handover of weapons to the Palestinian Authority or another Palestinian organization
Signatures of other militias or armed groups in addition to Hamas
A clear timeline for IDF withdrawal
The word “hostage”
Handover of weapons to a third country outside Palestine
An apology and/or expression of regret
The word “state”
The word “Trump” in the title
An offer to integrate former Hamas members into civilian institutions or a future police or army
A mechanism to penalize Israeli non-compliance
90
80
76
74
66
59
59
59
59
55
50
41
41
38
36
34
25
24
23
22
20
OptionProbability
No for both large and micro/small producers
Yes for both large and micro/small producers
Yes for large producers, but not for micro/small producers
No for large producers, but yes for micro/small producers
Other
95
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
104
96
