OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Stays alive
Causes Tina Peters' early release
pass 500 or more executive orders
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
new blockade of a country
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
put his name on a ship in the navy
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
Says 6 7 (or variant)
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
File lawsuit against a congressperson
resume buying oil from Russia
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
Dep
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Revoke ten or more citizenships
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
ten or more protestors killed during term
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
postpones or cancels 2026 senate elections in at least one state
Raise the retirement age for social security
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
Nominate a family member to high office
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
Call for the end of the Senate
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
add a new federal holiday in his honor
have a journalist arrested
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardon a convicted pedophile
Pardon himself
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Salute Putin
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
Get rid of Noaa.
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
force a former president to testify before Congress
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
stops all sanctions on Russia
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Withdraw from NATO
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Implement a federal age of consent
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Add a citizenship question to the census
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
Enact price controls on groceries
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
orders arrests of any Biden family member
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
Prosecute someone for flag burning
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Announce he’s running for a third term
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
all time high unemployment reached
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Causes derek chauvin's early release
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Attack a NATO ally.
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
expand the borders of the usa
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
ban trans people from holding federal offices
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Annex any part of Mexico
ends black history month
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
take control of a part of greenland
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Pardon p diddy
Implement a federal abortion ban
make statements that are negative about labubu
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
fully nationalize an airline
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
repeal an amendment
declares a white history month
Call for the end of the House of Reps
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
Call for the end of interracial marriage
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
bans anime
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
bans 6 7
Kidnap the Pope
100
100
100
100
100
95
88
88
84
83
82
81
80
80
75
72
72
71
70
69
69
66
64
63
62
62
60
57
53
52
51
50
49
48
47
45
44
44
43
42
42
40
40
39
38
38
36
36
36
36
35
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
24
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
130486
84436
OptionProbability
At least one credible mainstream news source reports by EO2026 that the files are either partially redacted or partly missing or suspects the files were altered (opinion section OK)
By EOY26 Massie claims that the files have been altered or otherwise significantly not in compliance with the bill's requirements
However, the administration manages to blacken great parts of the files.
Something happens or is enforced by Trump to divert the attraction on other things.
A MSM news source speculates partisan bias in redactions (opinion section OK) by EOY2026
After blackened papers are made public, there will be a leakage of uncensored files.
Soon after release, the Trump DOJ launches a raft of investigations against political opponents named in the Epstein files.
Stacey Plaskett no longer a US House Delegate before 1 Feb 2027?
At least five people with Wikipedia pages resign due to files
The 10 possible "co-conspirators" of Epstein are revealed
Files suggest Epstein offered to cooperation/testimony against associates within 1 year of his death.
Somebody gets prison time
"Bubba" photo released or leaked by EOY26
An ongoing DOJ investigation triggered by Trump’s allegations involving Bill Clinton or others will result in the files being sealed and not publicly released despite the Epstein Transparency Act
Any congressperson gets impeached/removed in 2026 in part due to their involvement with Epstein
Someone in the November 2025 Supreme Court is mentioned in the files
George Stephanopoulos Leaves ABC before 4th of July 2026
Trump gets impeached in 2026 in part due to his involvement with Epstein
Any F500 company’s market cap loses 10% within a week of an executive’s involvements with Epstein becoming known
At least 10% of current (Nov. 19, '25) House Representatives leave office (by any means) before the next congress is sworn in
Trump admin vetoes the Nov 18 release
100
100
100
94
86
69
56
55
46
44
37
30
25
25
24
24
20
12
10
2
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
3380
296
OptionVotes
YES
NO
10466
9555
OptionProbability
Expansion of self-declared environmental licensing (e.g., PL 2159/21)
Regulation of the Tax Reform approved in 2023 (rules for the new IVA)
Amnesty for electoral fines for non-compliance with racial and gender quotas (e.g., PEC 9/23)
Increase in the duration of paternity leave for all cases that currently have this right (e.g., PL 6216/23)
Legalization of gambling (e.g., PL 2234/22)
Time limit for the demarcation of Indigenous Lands (e.g., PEC 48/23 - "Marco Temporal das Terras Indígenas")
Constitutional prohibition of carrying any quantity of illicit drugs (e.g., PEC 45/23)
Change of attribution for the demarcation of Indigenous Lands to Congress (e.g., PEC 59/23)
Prohibition of the reinstatement of Armed Forces members who leave the position to run in elections (e.g., PEC 42/23)
Some reform of military pensions
New law to regulate health plans (e.g., PL 7419/06)
Change in percentages or rules for calculating the constitutional floor for health and/or education expenses
Mineral exploration in Conservation Units (e.g., PL 5822/19)
Return of the five-year bonus payment for the Public Ministry and public defenders (e.g., PEC 10/23)
Attribution for states to legislate on the carrying and possession of firearms (e.g., PLP 108/23)
Reduction of the legal reserve proportion in the Amazon (e.g., PL 3334/23)
Prohibition of plea bargains during preventive detention (e.g., PL 4372/16)
Criminalization of a legal hypothesis for abortion that is currently considered legal (e.g., PL 1904/24 - "PL do Estuprador")
Some increase in the responsibilities of digital platforms for false content ("PL das Fake News")
Obligation for digital platforms to pay for the distribution of journalistic content
End of re-election for executive authorities (e.g., PEC 15/07)
Creation of fixed-term mandates for Supreme Court justices (e.g., PEC 16/19)
End of the Union's exclusive ownership of marine land (e.g., PEC 3/22 - "PEC das Praias")
Amnesty for those prosecuted for participating in the events of January 8, 2023 (e.g., PL 5064/23)
End of salary bonus ("Fim do abono salarial")
Impeachment of Lula
Impeachment of a Supreme Court Ministry
100
100
100
96
60
59
58
38
34
31
30
28
26
25
25
21
19
17
17
17
16
16
14
14
10
6
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1689
592
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1074
957
OptionProbability
Customer Service Representative < 2028
Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)
Market Research Analyst < 2030
Compliance Officer < 2030
Human Resources Manager < 2030
Graphic Designer < 2028
Judges < 2040
Teacher < 2040
53
45
36
36
35
34
28
28
OptionProbability
Apple gets subjected to financial penalties
Opening Up of NFC and Other Hardware Features - Apple is required to provide third-party developers access to hardware features currently restricted, such as the NFC chip used for tap-to-pay transactions.
IApple gets mandated to implement interoperability measures for messaging and smartwatch functionalities
The ruling forces Apple to allow developers to use their payment systems within their apps, bypassing Apple's in-app purchase system and the associated fees.
The court sets clear deadlines for when Apple must implement these changes, such as within 90 days of the ruling, providing a clear timeline for verification.
The court orders Apple to revise Apple's App Store guidelines to allow for more competition.
Establishment of a mechanism for ongoing oversight of Apple's compliance with the lawsuit's rulings.
Apple is compelled to allow developers more freedom in presentation and monetization of apps, including enabling different app discovery methods (ex : use of icons or tiles for mini programs, categorizing them, or using virtual currencies).
Mandatory Allowance of Third-Party App Stores and Sideloading
The court finds Apple guilty of monopolizing or attempting to monopolize the performance smartphone market and/or the broader smartphone market in the United States in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.
The court defines specific permissible actions for super apps and cloud gaming services on iOS, like not requiring each game or service within a super app to be submitted to the App Store individually.
If state antitrust laws are violated, Apple could be fined a specific dollar amount per incident of anticompetitive conduct, as defined by state statutes. (Conditional market)
The court requires Apple to permit cloud gaming services on its devices
The lawsuit leads to a decision that deems Apple's 30% commission rate as excessive.
The court may issue injunctions to prohibit Apple from continuing the specific practices that are identified as anticompetitive, such as using control over app distribution and private APIs to undermine competition.
The court mandates a specific maximum percentage for App Store commissions, such as reducing the current 30% fee to a lower figure, like 15% or 10%.
The court orders Apple to apply its rules and guidelines fairly across all apps and not enforce them selectively to benefit its services or harm competitors.
Apple gets ordered to give restitution to developers or consumers who have been adversely affected by its policies.
The court could require a measurable increase in the number of apps or services in previously restricted categories, such as digital wallets or cloud gaming, available on iOS within a certain period post-ruling.
Compulsory API Access: Apple gets ordered to provide third-party developers with access to the same APIs and functionalities that its own apps use, which could be tracked by a compliance monitor appointed by the court.
80
66
66
66
65
62
55
55
55
52
48
48
47
47
43
40
36
36
33
32
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1053
738
OptionVotes
NO
YES
432
192
