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Prediction markets for Computer Agent

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

70%chance

9920833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1486

1028

Top OSWorld score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1120657

Computer-use AI agent gets scammed / falls victim to a phishing attack, in 2025?

Jan 23, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.16%chance

333791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2010

498

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.31%chance

213007

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1720

738

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

54.88%chance

242972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Which company has best Computer Agent AI model end of 2025? (Computer Agent Arena Leaderboard)

Apr 8, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

282113

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

xAI

Other

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

44

22

21

7

2

1

1

1

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

152110

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

2030-2034

38

17

15

13

9

8

Will a regulatory body modeled on the FDA regulate AI in the US by the end of 2027?

Oct 19, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.34%chance

272080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1501

850

2. Scaling laws will be discovered and exploited in areas beyond text—in particular, in robotics and biology.

Dec 27, 8:12 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

61%chance

131668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1251

800

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

38.69%chance

11944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

Will computer-using AI agents play Balatro better than me by eoy 2025?

Oct 29, 2:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.4%chance

16392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

47

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