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Prediction markets for Computer Use

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.74%chance

5813755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1084

653

Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

Sep 11, 2:06 PMSep 12, 3:59 AM

65.84%chance

418549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

720

Will I be using a brain-computer interface in my daily life by 2030?

Nov 14, 3:37 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.43%chance

643321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2790

522

Will I use VR computer monitors for 25%+ of my work screentime by 2027?

Nov 4, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.12%chance

27990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

884

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

23.46%chance

23806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

923

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.72%chance

11393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

158

China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030

Nov 15, 10:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14%chance

5388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2026

Apr 1, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

9385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

33

By what year will non-invasive brain-computer interfaces for general consumers be used by more than 1 million people?

Dec 30, 6:54 PMDec 30, 12:00 AM

8.57%chance

9335

OptionProbability

NO

YES

395

333

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

59.5%chance

2232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will any TOP500 computer use CPUs or accelerators built off of the RISC-V ISA in 2028?

May 6, 12:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73%chance

7190

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

46

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

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