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Prediction markets for Computer Use

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Jan 17, 6:27 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.03%chance

6013835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

733

Will we have useful fault-tolerant Quantum Computers within the next decade

Sep 11, 2:06 PMSep 12, 3:59 AM

67.41%chance

418599

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1438

695

Will I be using a brain-computer interface in my daily life by 2030?

Nov 14, 3:37 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

11.28%chance

653346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2815

518

How much compute will be used to train GPT-5?

Dec 10, 8:17 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

182643

OptionProbability

Between 5e25 FLOP and 1.5e26 FLOP

Fewer than 5e25 FLOP

Between 1.5e26 FLOP and 4.5e26 FLOP

Between 4.5e26 FLOP and 1.4e27 FLOP

Between 1.4e27 FLOP and 4e27 FLOP

More than 4e27 FLOP

57

19

15

8

1

0

Will I use VR computer monitors for 25%+ of my work screentime by 2027?

Nov 4, 3:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.12%chance

27990

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

884

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

23.46%chance

23806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

923

In 2028, will a commercial AI be able to play almost all computer games at human level with zero-shot computer use?

Sep 13, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

41.17%chance

11687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

70.93%chance

3582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

640

Will a quantum computer successfully use Shor’s algorithm to break a public-key cryptosystem, e.g. RSA, by 2030?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMJan 1, 12:01 AM

14.72%chance

11393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

158

China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2030

Nov 15, 10:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14%chance

5388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

Which company will first publicly demonstrate a fault-tolerant, commercially useful quantum computer?

Jul 3, 1:20 PMJul 10, 12:20 AM

220

OptionProbability

Google

IBM

Quantinuum

PsiQuantum

IonQ

Other

Other

Microsoft

26

11

11

11

11

11

11

9

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