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Prediction markets for Confidence Index

Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

54.69%chance

357891

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8174

1558

Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.5%chance

81835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1832

860

China Top: Chinese lab #1 on ECI before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.37%chance

6752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1376

923

SSI Top: SSI model #1 on ECI before 2028?

Aug 8, 7:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.74%chance

5215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

985

Which lab will top Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 30, 2026?

Oct 31, 2:58 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

7115

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

Other organization

47

42

7

4

Will the next Astra 6.1+ beat the next Fable 5.2+ on Epoch's ECI? (Apr 30 snapshot)

Nov 2, 7:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.35%chance

569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

94

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

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