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Confidence Index News
Prediction markets for Confidence Index
Prediction markets for Confidence Index
Takeoff: ECI >= 200 before 2028?
Aug 8, 7:13 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
28.34%
chance
31
5114
Option
Votes
NO
YES
6634
3859
Leap: ECI record beaten by >= 9 points before 2028?
Aug 8, 7:13 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
8%
chance
6
1753
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2328
810
China Top: Chinese lab #1 on ECI before 2028?
Aug 8, 7:13 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
11.79%
chance
3
650
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1650
882
SSI Top: SSI model #1 on ECI before 2028?
Aug 8, 7:13 AM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
6.74%
chance
5
215
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1185
985
Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
Jul 16, 1:51 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
35%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
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