OptionProbability
Unyielding Islamic Regime
Deal with major concessions
Deal with minimal concessions
Military coup (Artesh)
Venezuela-style puppet state
Balkanization/long civil war
Popular takeover
Voluntary transition of power
37
25
24
6
3
2
1
By end of 2050
By end of 2045
By end of 2040
By end of 2035
By end of 2034
By end of 2033
By end of 2032
By end of 2031
By end of 2029
By end of 2030
By end of 2028
By end of 2027
By end of 2026
80
74
67
59
54
52
50
45
44
42
41
12
OptionVotes
YES
NO
136
90
124
