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Top stories

Former Biden Adviser Jake Sullivan Supports Arms Embargo on Israel Amid Gaza Conflict and Ceasefire Collapse; Senators Criticize Syria Strikes

US Foreign Policy

Former Biden Adviser Jake Sullivan Supports Arms Embargo on Israel Amid Gaza Conflict and Ceasefire Collapse; Senators Criticize Syria Strikes

Authors

8

3 months ago

Prediction markets for conflict

Military conflict between the US and Venezuela in 2025?

Aug 28, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.65%chance

810304413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3085

649

Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2026?

Jan 22, 8:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.38%chance

183167202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37000

1401

Which of these military conflicts will escalate to war in 2025?

Jan 1, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16497952

OptionProbability

Israel / Iran

Nigeria / Cameroon

Balochistan / Anyone

Central African Republic Civil War

India / Pakistan

Kurdistan / Anyone

Iraqi Conflict

Bangladesh / Anyone

United States / Iran

Azerbaijan / Armenia

100

100

45

19

14

8

7

6

5

4

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

9.62%chance

9032347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1930

834

Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000?

Oct 22, 5:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

85.85%chance

6524092

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2131

136

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.19%chance

6522953

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

960

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

Jan 29, 10:42 AMDec 29, 12:59 AM

16.7%chance

5310470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

619

Military conflict between the US and Venezuela by 2027

Oct 24, 11:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.8%chance

428935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

1641

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12%chance

124728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will the US sustain more than 100 casualties in 2025 as a result of the conflict with Iran?

Jun 22, 2:33 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

3.32%chance

221273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

540

19

Will India settle their Kashmir conflict with Pakistan before January 1st 2035?

Nov 27, 5:20 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

47.97%chance

31666

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2074

1899

Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?

Mar 23, 6:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

70.01%chance

15481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

957

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