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Top stories

Former Biden Adviser Jake Sullivan Supports Arms Embargo on Israel Amid Gaza Conflict and Ceasefire Collapse; Senators Criticize Syria Strikes

US Foreign Policy

Former Biden Adviser Jake Sullivan Supports Arms Embargo on Israel Amid Gaza Conflict and Ceasefire Collapse; Senators Criticize Syria Strikes

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for conflict

Will 5,000+ Gazans starve to death as a result of the current conflict?

Mar 19, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15%chance

13056475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1287

922

Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)

Jan 15, 2:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.58%chance

8942896

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1545

472

Will India settle their Kashmir conflict with Pakistan before January 1st 2035?

Nov 27, 5:20 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

30.06%chance

4634664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2873

1463

[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.47%chance

5130898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24768

1481

Will Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?

Jan 29, 10:42 AMDec 29, 12:59 AM

25.34%chance

5911690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1489

764

Military conflict between the US and Cuba before 2028?

Jan 9, 3:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.36%chance

345239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1797

533

US and Mexico engage in armed conflict before January 20, 2029

Jan 4, 7:50 PMJan 21, 12:00 AM

12.52%chance

134737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2644

378

Will Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?

Jan 28, 10:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.48%chance

412512

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

949

Will conflicts in the 2020s be called The Drone Wars?

Apr 15, 4:32 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

36.84%chance

212398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

907

Will Trump have a public conflict with FEMA during his 2nd term?

Nov 9, 10:18 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

74.72%chance

102307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1719

582

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?

Apr 9, 9:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

76.15%chance

12270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

880

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