Congress Act News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

YES

1142

876

Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?

Aug 19, 3:17 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

27.33%chance

14610416

OptionVotes

YES

1631

613

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Aug 4, 6:19 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

42.59%chance

124441

OptionVotes

YES

1161

861

Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?

Mar 27, 3:22 AMFeb 1, 11:59 AM

6.81%chance

92795

OptionVotes

YES

3699

270

Will the next Congress repeal or substantially amend the Height Act?

Aug 30, 3:36 PMJan 4, 5:59 AM

8.27%chance

162585

OptionVotes

YES

3330

300

Will the US judiciary remain independent by the end of Trump's term?

Mar 2, 8:39 AMJan 21, 10:59 PM

53.46%chance

181320

OptionVotes

YES

1072

933

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

Apr 14, 8:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.93%chance

4455

OptionVotes

YES

1355

886

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4251

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Will the JAWBONE Act be enacted into law in the 119th Congress?

Jun 11, 10:12 PMJan 3, 11:59 AM

44.23%chance

3123

OptionVotes

YES

1123

890

If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?

Jan 31, 9:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

6121

OptionVotes

YES

196

Will Congress repeal or substantially amend the Height Act by EOY 2028?

Feb 25, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.67%chance

3100

OptionVotes

YES

147

Will Rewarding Efforts to Decrease Unrecycled Contaminants in Ecosystems (REDUCE) Act make it to a vote in congress?

Oct 4, 12:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.1%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

Congress Act News

Prediction markets for Congress Act

Prediction markets for Congress Act

Prediction markets for Congress Act

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?

Will the next Congress repeal or substantially amend the Height Act?

Will the US judiciary remain independent by the end of Trump's term?

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Will the JAWBONE Act be enacted into law in the 119th Congress?

If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?

Will Congress repeal or substantially amend the Height Act by EOY 2028?

Will Rewarding Efforts to Decrease Unrecycled Contaminants in Ecosystems (REDUCE) Act make it to a vote in congress?

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