Congress Act News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

YES

1201

833

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Aug 4, 6:19 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

42.02%chance

114431

OptionVotes

YES

1175

851

Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?

Mar 27, 3:22 AMFeb 1, 11:59 AM

7.65%chance

92778

OptionVotes

YES

3475

288

Will the next Congress repeal or substantially amend the Height Act?

Aug 30, 3:36 PMJan 4, 5:59 AM

9.54%chance

162335

OptionVotes

YES

3080

325

Will the US judiciary remain independent by the end of Trump's term?

Mar 2, 8:39 AMJan 21, 10:59 PM

53.46%chance

181320

OptionVotes

YES

1072

933

Which law will be the primary authority for the 10% Global Tariff on July 1, 2026?

Feb 21, 5:12 AMJul 1, 12:00 AM

7414

OptionProbability

Section 301 (Unfair Trade)

Section 122 (Trade Act of 1974)

Struck down / No 10% Tariff

New Act of Congress

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?

Jan 31, 9:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

6121

OptionVotes

YES

196

Will the JAWBONE Act be enacted into law in the 119th Congress?

Jun 11, 10:12 PMJan 3, 11:59 AM

45.02%chance

2105

OptionVotes

YES

1105

905

Will Congress repeal or substantially amend the Height Act by EOY 2028?

Feb 25, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.67%chance

3100

OptionVotes

YES

147

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

Apr 14, 8:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.09%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

6216

6157

Will Rewarding Efforts to Decrease Unrecycled Contaminants in Ecosystems (REDUCE) Act make it to a vote in congress?

Oct 4, 12:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.1%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

Congress Act News

Prediction markets for Congress Act

Prediction markets for Congress Act

Prediction markets for Congress Act

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Will the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (S.4214) pass Congress by end of the 119th Congress?

Will the next Congress repeal or substantially amend the Height Act?

Will the US judiciary remain independent by the end of Trump's term?

Which law will be the primary authority for the 10% Global Tariff on July 1, 2026?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?

Will the JAWBONE Act be enacted into law in the 119th Congress?

Will Congress repeal or substantially amend the Height Act by EOY 2028?

Will Congress ameliorate the ACA subsidy cliff for the 2026 tax year?

Will Rewarding Efforts to Decrease Unrecycled Contaminants in Ecosystems (REDUCE) Act make it to a vote in congress?

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