Congress Act News

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Apr 7, 10:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.83%chance

18878430

OptionVotes

YES

1220

873

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

52.48%chance

8912775

OptionVotes

YES

1051

952

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Aug 4, 6:19 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

51.18%chance

84233

OptionVotes

YES

1024

977

Will the US judiciary remain independent by the end of Trump's term?

Mar 2, 8:39 AMJan 21, 10:59 PM

53.46%chance

181320

OptionVotes

YES

1072

933

Will the next Congress repeal or substantially amend the Height Act?

Aug 30, 3:36 PMJan 4, 5:59 AM

20.82%chance

151205

OptionVotes

YES

1950

513

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMMay 21, 6:59 AM

50.46%chance

8375

OptionVotes

YES

1009

991

Will any US Congress member face any disciplinary action due to insider trading in 2025?

Apr 11, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.49%chance

12231

OptionVotes

YES

277

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

Jul 14, 2:29 PMApr 15, 10:59 PM

4216

OptionProbability

Gambling losses deduction remains limited to 90% as laid out in OBBB

Congress explicitly intervenes to restore 100% deduction (example Rep Titus FAIR BET act enacted)

Mainstream pro gamblers move primarily to prediction markets for tax treatment

Administrative action classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Court ruling classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Legislation classifies sports prediction markets as gambling for tax purposes

Major sports book goes bankrupt because of OBBB by 2027-01-01

Major sports book restructures as a prediction market before 2026-01-01

If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?

Jan 31, 9:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.79%chance

5118

OptionVotes

YES

205

Municipal bond interest tax break limited by EOY?

Mar 20, 2:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

1110

919

Will Rewarding Efforts to Decrease Unrecycled Contaminants in Ecosystems (REDUCE) Act make it to a vote in congress?

Oct 4, 12:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.1%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

Will Section 230 be repealed by the end of 2028?

Mar 21, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.9%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1002

998

Congress Act News

Prediction markets for Congress Act

Prediction markets for Congress Act

Prediction markets for Congress Act

Will either the courts or congress significantly limit trumps ability to impose or negotiate tariffs by the end of 2025

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Will the US judiciary remain independent by the end of Trump's term?

Will the next Congress repeal or substantially amend the Height Act?

If the Take It Down Act becomes law, will it be used against satirists or journalists?

Will any US Congress member face any disciplinary action due to insider trading in 2025?

2026 Gambling Loss Tax Rules Prop Bets

If prediction markets become mostly legal in the US by 2030, was it because of actions by Congress?

Municipal bond interest tax break limited by EOY?

Will Rewarding Efforts to Decrease Unrecycled Contaminants in Ecosystems (REDUCE) Act make it to a vote in congress?

Will Section 230 be repealed by the end of 2028?

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