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What will happen relating to Iran before April 1, 2026?

Jan 13, 4:09 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

616641

OptionProbability

Significant protests are reported in February and March

The US launches airstrikes

Israel and Iran go to war again

Iran strikes Israel with missiles

The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)

Iran strikes US bases

The US launches airstrikes on three different days

Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American

Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power

The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed

US ground troops enter Iran

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

YES

2141

900

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

113329

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

180+ days

365+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

1149

883

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?

Dec 30, 5:32 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

9832

OptionProbability

Dec 31, 2026

Jun 30, 2026

Jan 31, 2026

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

105

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Prediction markets for Connect Secure

Prediction markets for Connect Secure

Prediction markets for Connect Secure

What will happen relating to Iran before April 1, 2026?

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

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