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Prediction markets for Connect Secure

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?

Sep 12, 1:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

123916

OptionProbability

1+ days

30+ days

365+ days

180+ days

730+ days

1825+ days

0 days

100

100

55

54

46

22

0

Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by...?

Dec 30, 5:32 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

153806

OptionProbability

Dec 31, 2026

Jun 30, 2026

Jan 31, 2026

99

98

0

Will Daniel R. Simon's “A Polynomial-Time Quantum Algorithm for the Dihedral Coset Problem” be proven wrong?

Aug 10, 11:46 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

92.67%chance

12962

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

28

Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?

Aug 9, 3:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

31920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

883

When will the first Chinese branded EV be sold in the United States?

Aug 5, 1:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8181

OptionProbability

Before 2032

Before 2031

Before 2030

Before 2029

After 2032

Before 2028

Before 2027

87

76

72

41

34

17

13

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

Will an "AGI insider" class accept the political disempowerment of everyone else?

Aug 8, 9:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.65%chance

450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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