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Prediction markets for Connections

Did people connected with Trump campaign spend $10m+ to influence election markets? [based on reporting by end of 2025]

Oct 17, 10:56 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

13.8%chance

4813215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2499

400

Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030

Aug 27, 5:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.06%chance

254359

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1718

761

Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2025?

Jun 12, 6:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.2%chance

163124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3589

279

Will Antarctica be connected to high-speed fiber optic cable by the end of 2026?

Jun 12, 6:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.58%chance

201372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

555

Will I be the subject of a Craigslist Missed Connection in the Bay Area before the end of 2025?

Jun 13, 5:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.61%chance

151034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1542

649

If AGI is achieved, will it be able to consistently and reliably connect printers within 6 months?

Feb 25, 1:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.35%chance

37810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

816

Will Apple announce an iPhone model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

May 3, 1:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.53%chance

25682

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

974

Will Sicily be connected with the mainland by a bridge before 2038?

Mar 18, 10:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

50%chance

16567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

753

Will any ex-Hololive member join Phase Connect before June 2027?

Apr 17, 10:21 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

29.74%chance

4537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1537

651

Will Google announce a Pixel model with no external ports for wires or connections before the end of 2027?

May 3, 1:30 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.77%chance

16331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

974

Will any ex-Nijisanji member join Phase Connect before June 2027?

Apr 17, 10:23 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

43.06%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

Will "Connecting the Dots: LLMs can Infer & Verbali..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 22, 3:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.46%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

753

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