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Prediction markets for Conquest

By 2050, will a country have waged a war of conquest because its territory is becoming uninhabitable?

Aug 14, 12:32 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

21.12%chance

11706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

818

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4605

Which European country will be the next to lose territory?

Jan 18, 2:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14334

OptionProbability

Other

Armenia

Moldova

Denmark

Russia

Spain

United Kingdom

Albania

48

16

11

8

5

4

4

2

China gets direct land access to the sea of Japan from Russia through 2032

Sep 12, 11:27 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

45.3%chance

10221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

172

What will be the next Europa Universalis 4 tag that Tetraspace does a complete playthrough with?

May 10, 8:04 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

26

OptionProbability

Other

Austria

England

89

9

2

Is conquest always bad, under all circumstances. Conquest means not a war of regime change, but occupation for ever

Oct 11, 2:36 PM

100

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