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Prediction markets for Consensus

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39130566

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

26

21

20

18

17

11

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

50.91%chance

9183970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

362

Will the scientific consensus that the universe's expansion is accelerating end before the end of 2030?

Sep 2, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.96%chance

9475647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3558

1754

By 2100, will there be scientific consensus supporting the existence of past or present life on Mars?

Feb 27, 5:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.21%chance

10326560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1758

1520

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4719284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.12%chance

428528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1110

864

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.78%chance

737631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1216

1143

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10173

3993

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

71.9%chance

774062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

1159

Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Mars by 2034?

Jan 6, 12:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.93%chance

823422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

1270

In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?

Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.95%chance

391876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1339

719

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