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Prediction markets for Consensus

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42130742

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

26

21

20

18

17

11

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

57%chance

9585361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1368

299

Will the scientific consensus that the universe's expansion is accelerating end before the end of 2030?

Sep 2, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.04%chance

9575797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2229

1904

By 2100, will there be scientific consensus supporting the existence of past or present life on Mars?

Feb 27, 5:13 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

40.48%chance

10326610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1792

1469

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

58.44%chance

4819304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

860

In 2040, will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex?

Mar 15, 1:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.1%chance

8512884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1377

1032

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.39%chance

2112795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13866

3633

Will expert consensus suggest there are strong innate psychological differences by biological sex? (Excluding: sex desire)

Apr 2, 5:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

438642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

780

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.24%chance

747641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1226

1131

Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)

May 19, 9:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.56%chance

337525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1544

648

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

71.9%chance

774062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

1159

Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Mars by 2034?

Jan 6, 12:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.93%chance

823422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

1270

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