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Prediction markets for Consensus 2024

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

496718485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

Will Bitcoin ever go below $50,000 again?

Jun 15, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:18 AM

83.2%chance

266297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2225

449

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

655171

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

OpenAI/Microsoft

Anthropic

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

32

23

21

8

8

5

3

0

Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

373655

OptionProbability

Kerch Bridge (Crimea)

Yamal-Europe Pipeline

Belo Monte Dam (Brazil)

Guri Dam (Venezuela)

Itaipu Dam (Brazil and Paraguay)

Panama Canal (Panama)

Vatican City

Suez Canal (Egypt)

Xiluodu Dam (China)

Baihetan Dam (China)

Three Gorges Dam (China)

The Great Sphinx of Giza (Egypt)

Golden Gate Bridge (United States)

Statue of Liberty (US)

The Empire State Building (US)

The Louvre (Paris, France)

Channel Tunnel (UK and France)

Hoover Dam (US)

Port of Houston (US)

World Trade Center (New York, US)

Eiffel Tower (Paris, France)

The Holland Tunnel (The tunnel under the Hudson River) (NYC to NJ, US)

99

35

26

25

24

22

21

20

19

17

17

16

12

12

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

9

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

769

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?

Apr 17, 3:54 PMFeb 24, 9:59 PM

68.2%chance

231639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

690

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

35.17%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

738

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

In the year 2100, what will be the consensus name given by historians to the era that includes 2024?

May 8, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24841

OptionProbability

Other

The Singularity

Post-Information Age

The internet age

Pre AGI period

Anthropocene

The Exponential Era

Second Interwar Period

Globalization era

Aluminium Age

Pre-caliphate

The Cosmic Exploration era

78

7

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]

Nov 29, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.93%chance

8658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

408

51

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1553

644

Will Donald Trump be noticeably more successful at accomplishing his goals in his second term than he was in his first?

Nov 10, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.01%chance

11475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

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