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Prediction markets for Consensus 2024

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

Will Bitcoin ever go below $50,000 again?

Jun 15, 9:23 AMJan 1, 10:18 AM

85.23%chance

276645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2402

416

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

769

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

29%chance

171855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

640

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?

Apr 17, 3:54 PMFeb 24, 9:59 PM

68.2%chance

231639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

690

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.45%chance

5855

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1853

540

In the year 2100, what will be the consensus name given by historians to the era that includes 2024?

May 8, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24841

OptionProbability

Other

The Singularity

Post-Information Age

The internet age

Pre AGI period

Anthropocene

The Exponential Era

Second Interwar Period

Globalization era

Aluminium Age

Pre-caliphate

The Cosmic Exploration era

78

7

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]

Nov 29, 11:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.93%chance

8658

OptionVotes

YES

NO

408

51

Will Donald Trump be noticeably more successful at accomplishing his goals in his second term than he was in his first?

Nov 10, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.01%chance

11475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

766

In what year will peak oil production occur?

Mar 13, 11:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

9217

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2028-2029

2027-2028

2030-2031

2031-2032

2025-2026

2032-2033

2033-2034

2026-2027

2024-2025

22

21

16

16

8

5

5

5

2

0

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