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Prediction markets for Consensus 2025

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.61%chance

9391489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

88977

36167

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.1%chance

9858276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23237

879

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

73.09%chance

10537099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16481

6067

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.51%chance

11118952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7997

907

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.46%chance

2112898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13764

3641

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

406214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

2308

Will global peak oil production occur before 2026?

Jan 17, 12:29 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.83%chance

394673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

916

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

46.63%chance

213403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

613

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?

Apr 17, 3:54 PMFeb 24, 9:59 PM

68.12%chance

241866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1451

691

Straw Hat protests continue in 2026

Jan 6, 4:44 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16.09%chance

41650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2283

438

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.47%chance

281614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

750

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

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