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Prediction markets for Consensus 2025

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.02%chance

9189999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

87376

36514

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.28%chance

9653736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18814

1115

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

74.06%chance

10536790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16896

5918

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.87%chance

11018608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7653

928

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.44%chance

5413682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

879

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.26%chance

2112589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14072

3617

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

406214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

2308

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

769

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?

Apr 17, 3:54 PMFeb 24, 9:59 PM

68.12%chance

241866

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1451

691

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.47%chance

281614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

750

Will six months or fewer elapse between when Manifold declares the achievement of AGI and superintelligence?

Aug 31, 6:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.18%chance

101345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Straw Hat protests continue in 2026

Jan 6, 4:44 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.02%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

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