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Prediction markets for Consensus 2025

Q-Day before 2030?

Apr 1, 9:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.22%chance

8988238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

86621

36681

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

10.26%chance

6641051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29408

3081

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.06%chance

9039266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17739

1192

Health issues from 100% Huel diet discovered by 2035?

Sep 21, 9:08 PMDec 28, 11:59 PM

71.68%chance

10535790

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15911

6285

Australia reverses under-16 social media ban in 2026?

Dec 10, 3:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.99%chance

10818505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7550

934

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.5%chance

2010838

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15423

3517

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58%chance

409386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

69.56%chance

406214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

2308

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

769

Will global CO2 emissions decrease in 2028?

Apr 17, 3:54 PMFeb 24, 9:59 PM

68.2%chance

231639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1454

690

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.47%chance

281614

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1097

750

Straw Hat protests continue in 2026

Jan 6, 4:44 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.02%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

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