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Prediction markets for Consensus 2025

Will Elon Musk buy TikTok?

Jan 14, 12:45 AMAug 31, 11:00 PM

1.01%chance

231279115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144200

5137

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2025?

Oct 20, 9:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.89%chance

34795303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19746

9111

What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?

Jan 23, 2:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7876019

OptionProbability

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

30-40%

70-80%

20-30%

80-90%

90-100%

0-10%

10-20%

22

22

16

13

10

6

5

4

1

1

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22945

4656

US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?

Jun 10, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.13%chance

10236601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17560

8857

Will there be public consensus that Adrian Dittman is directly controlled or associated with Elon Musk by end of 2025?

Dec 28, 11:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4.01%chance

265528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

490

20

Will @squirtle_says get abs in 2025?

Apr 24, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.02%chance

364932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10761

7308

Will Trump refuse to carry out or obey any Supreme Court decisions?

Mar 7, 12:05 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

75.9%chance

394722

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3864

2046

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

49.22%chance

243307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10581

9400

Iran’s 60%+ enriched uranium stockpile and its capability to produce more both eliminated by June 2025 strikes?

Jun 22, 11:06 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

8%chance

91938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2500

62

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.93%chance

271514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

967

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