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Prediction markets for Consensus Layer

What percentage of mechanistic interpretability is solved for GPT-2?

Dec 12, 11:00 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33%chance

8425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

When will Canada separate itself from the monarchy?

Mar 31, 1:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6376

OptionProbability

Not before King Charles has died/abdicated (not necessarily immediately)

By 2050

Not before Quebec declares independence

By 2040

Not before closing date

Before Quebec declares independence

While under King Charles

By 2030

In 2025

83

71

69

50

34

31

17

17

1

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