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Prediction markets for Consistency Large Language Models

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

Mar 23, 3:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5705

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032+

2027

2026

2025

28

13

13

13

13

10

7

4

Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?

Jun 3, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

7276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

524

438

Will Nintendo use LLM to generate lines for Luigi or Waluigi in any video game before 2033?

Mar 14, 4:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

9200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

307

100

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