Consistency Models News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

20049319

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

53.18%chance

3422942

OptionVotes

YES

1292

258

Will we have a [decent] end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2029?

Oct 4, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.98%chance

8212639

OptionVotes

YES

1363

776

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1412037

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.48%chance

5911988

OptionVotes

YES

2256

220

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

10497

2690

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

46.63%chance

213403

OptionVotes

YES

1302

613

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM

111689

OptionProbability

5.4

5.5

5.6

6.5

5.7

5.8

5.9

100

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

Mar 23, 2:17 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

32.8%chance

211576

OptionVotes

YES

1483

180

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.38%chance

191406

OptionVotes

YES

1014

906

Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?

Jan 26, 9:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.61%chance

471397

OptionVotes

YES

1152

930

Will a frontier model consistently claim it is ASI by end of 2027?

Sep 23, 5:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.26%chance

5129

OptionVotes

YES

192

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Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Will we have a [decent] end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2029?

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?

Will a frontier model consistently claim it is ASI by end of 2027?

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