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Prediction markets for Consistency Models

Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?

Feb 28, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10096134

Top FrontierMath score in 2025?

Feb 28, 5:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5560340

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

37.29%chance

2515523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

437

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.12%chance

3612488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19925

5019

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

15.46%chance

5711934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2194

231

Will the next Gemini model have a stupid fucking name?

Jun 17, 5:52 PMDec 31, 5:31 PM

54.41%chance

278195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

915

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

11.77%chance

377085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2541

194

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

10%chance

586790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2525

670

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9916

2845

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.33%chance

161319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

874

Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?

Jan 26, 9:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.08%chance

39892

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

691

Will I think that a model or service I try is good enough to write my blog from my notes before the end of the year?

Feb 20, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.12%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

853

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