Consistency Models News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19745815

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

30.27%chance

3021116

OptionVotes

YES

1081

564

Will we have a [decent] end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2029?

Oct 4, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.78%chance

8212610

OptionVotes

YES

1392

763

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

2262

219

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

10062

2804

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

1152

769

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Jan 13, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82446

OptionProbability

NVIDIA

Alphabet

Apple

Microsoft

Amazon

Broadcom

Tesla

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.38%chance

191406

OptionVotes

YES

1014

906

Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?

Jan 26, 9:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.19%chance

451047

OptionVotes

YES

1076

802

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

Mar 23, 2:17 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

82.94%chance

15860

OptionVotes

YES

1133

939

Will Huggingface a fold by 2028?

Mar 23, 2:19 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

29.72%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

210

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Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Will we have a [decent] end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2029?

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

Will Huggingface a fold by 2028?

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