Consistency Models News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19543864

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

29.46%chance

3021098

OptionVotes

YES

1074

582

Will we have a [decent] end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2029?

Oct 4, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.28%chance

7712482

OptionVotes

YES

1449

739

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.4%chance

5811987

OptionVotes

YES

2262

219

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

10.51%chance

729656

OptionVotes

YES

2429

681

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.51%chance

195543

OptionVotes

YES

10062

2804

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Feb 27, 12:20 AMNov 1, 9:41 PM

55.35%chance

183221

OptionVotes

YES

1152

769

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.59%chance

191390

OptionVotes

YES

1029

865

When will Brazil end private ownership of cartórios?

Aug 28, 12:44 PMJan 1, 4:00 AM

41390

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2040

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?

Jan 26, 9:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.86%chance

42984

OptionVotes

YES

1113

739

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

Mar 23, 2:17 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

82.94%chance

15860

OptionVotes

YES

1133

939

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Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Will we have a [decent] end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2029?

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

When will Brazil end private ownership of cartórios?

Will chatgpt stop calling itself a "chatbot" by 2027?

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

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