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Prediction markets for Constitution Day

Will California Proposition 41 (tax limits and special-tax audits) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

Oct 6, 6:35 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

2%chance

1811289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8100

248

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

338195

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

85

6

3

2

2

2

1

Will Trump change his mind on AI before 2027?

Sep 20, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

336942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

571

457

Conditional upon me trying, will I become POTUS by 2100?

Jan 12, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.51%chance

334313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

950

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

80.46%chance

404301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

867

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.54%chance

174278

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4638

681

Will the California legislature override any gubernatorial veto by the end of 2027

Sep 14, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.8%chance

51978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2874

348

Will the California legislature override any gubernatorial veto by the end of 2029

Sep 28, 5:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.59%chance

41270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2017

740

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.56%chance

13517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

759

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

874

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