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Prediction markets for Constitution Day

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

15.28%chance

8334610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2354

425

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

49.39%chance

708190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

988

Conditional upon me trying, will I become POTUS by 2100?

Jan 12, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.51%chance

334313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

950

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

80.46%chance

391301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

867

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.29%chance

11861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1222

951

Will the US pass or change a constitutional amendment in Trump's second term?

Nov 9, 12:20 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

9.96%chance

12444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

33

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.11%chance

11402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

874

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27%chance

16338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?

Mar 24, 3:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

27.69%chance

15297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

178

What will be the title/focus of the next Star Wars film? (Releasing 05/22/26)

Oct 20, 4:10 AMMay 24, 5:59 AM

999

OptionProbability

Rey’s New Jedi Order movie

“Dawn of the Jedi”

Dave Filoni’s The Mandalorian movie

56

51

34

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