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Prediction markets for Constitution Day

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

26.97%chance

3413742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1645

608

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

326314

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

72

6

6

6

5

5

1

Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

May 8, 8:22 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

22%chance

365974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will Orbán Viktor's party win a supermajority of seats in the 2026 parliamentary election?

Feb 14, 2:58 PMJun 30, 9:59 PM

8.29%chance

385609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

38

Conditional upon me trying, will I become POTUS by 2100?

Jan 12, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.51%chance

334313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

950

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

39.19%chance

374058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1246

803

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

80.46%chance

391301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

867

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.11%chance

11402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

874

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

183

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.19%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

823

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