Constitution Day News

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

24.34%chance

789595

OptionVotes

YES

1763

567

Conditional upon me trying, will I become POTUS by 2100?

Jan 12, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.51%chance

334313

OptionVotes

YES

1317

950

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

80.46%chance

391301

OptionVotes

YES

1403

867

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

1173

961

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

YES

1031

884

Will Judit Polgár become the next President of Hungary?

Jul 20, 6:25 PMMar 10, 11:59 PM

10%chance

8671

OptionVotes

YES

166

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

1225

816

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

1144

874

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

221

183

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

6116

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Of these potential 2028 candidates for president, who will be the first 3 to officially run?

May 17, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

390

OptionProbability

Gavin newsom

Pete buttigieg

Jon ossoff

Ro khanna

Jb pritzker

Mark kelly

Andy beshear

Rahm emanuel

AOC

Kamala harris

Josh shapiro

Jon stewart

James Talarico

Constitution Day News

Prediction markets for Constitution Day

Prediction markets for Constitution Day

Prediction markets for Constitution Day

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Conditional upon me trying, will I become POTUS by 2100?

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will Judit Polgár become the next President of Hungary?

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Of these potential 2028 candidates for president, who will be the first 3 to officially run?

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