Constitution Day News

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

28%chance

15066651

OptionVotes

YES

1604

624

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

38.69%chance

728679

OptionVotes

YES

1259

794

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

337165

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

Conditional upon me trying, will I become POTUS by 2100?

Jan 12, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.51%chance

334313

OptionVotes

YES

1317

950

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

80.46%chance

391301

OptionVotes

YES

1403

867

Who will join STF (Brazil's Supreme Court) in their lifetime?

Mar 28, 2:10 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

4980

OptionProbability

Bruno Dantas

Vera Lúcia Santana Araújo

Conrado Hübner Mendes

Jorge Messias

Silvio Almeida

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

1173

961

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

YES

1063

784

Will the US pass or change a constitutional amendment in Trump's second term?

Nov 9, 12:20 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

9.96%chance

12444

OptionVotes

YES

301

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

1225

816

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

1144

874

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

687

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Constitution Day News

Prediction markets for Constitution Day

Prediction markets for Constitution Day

Prediction markets for Constitution Day

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Conditional upon me trying, will I become POTUS by 2100?

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Who will join STF (Brazil's Supreme Court) in their lifetime?

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Will the US pass or change a constitutional amendment in Trump's second term?

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

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