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Prediction markets for Constitution Day

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

2.09%chance

317223763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6849

146

Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

May 8, 8:22 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

67%chance

468815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

70

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

38.57%chance

738759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1262

792

Conditional upon me trying, will I become POTUS by 2100?

Jan 12, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.51%chance

334313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

950

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

80.46%chance

391301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

867

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

11920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

961

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30%chance

22634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

874

Will monsoon reach Bihar by June 30, 2026?

Jun 9, 9:56 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

77.99%chance

8143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

188

53

Will there be a government shutdown before January 2027?

May 13, 8:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

5100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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