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Prediction markets for Constitution Day

Will Israel and Hezbollah have a major war before January 1st, 2030?

May 8, 8:22 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

7.05%chance

344804

OptionVotes

YES

NO

363

28

Will the United States engage in a war with another country by January 1, 2026?

Jan 2, 1:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.95%chance

224244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1942

515

Conditional upon me trying, will I become POTUS by 2100?

Jan 12, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.81%chance

323963

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

946

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

75.12%chance

371021

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

946

Will the US pass or change a constitutional amendment in Trump's second term?

Nov 9, 12:20 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

9.96%chance

12444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

33

Will a national referendum take place in 2025 in France?

Jan 2, 10:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

51.3%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

974

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

46.21%chance

5346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

927

Will any US state use the 14th Amendment to successfully disqualify a candidate for state office by 2028?

Mar 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.64%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

183

Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issue an injunction halting the Liberation Day Tarrifs?

May 14, 2:40 AMMar 2, 3:34 AM

54.43%chance

9171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

95

Intuitively, without overthinking, are claims by X user @Kabamur_taygeta resonating with you at a soul level?

Mar 16, 1:51 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

32.87%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

What will be the title/focus of the next Star Wars film? (Releasing 05/22/26)

Oct 20, 4:10 AMMay 24, 5:59 AM

999

OptionProbability

Rey’s New Jedi Order movie

“Dawn of the Jedi”

Dave Filoni’s The Mandalorian movie

56

51

34

Brazilian Congressman Glauber Braga's mandate revoked by Chamber of Deputies?

Apr 30, 11:45 PMOct 1, 11:43 PM

53.04%chance

247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

216

204

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