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Prediction markets for Constitution Day

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

23.16%chance

799625

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1821

549

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

337916

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

84

4

4

3

2

2

1

Conditional upon me trying, will I become POTUS by 2100?

Jan 12, 3:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.51%chance

334313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

950

Will Meta ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?

Jan 26, 6:59 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

80.46%chance

404301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1403

867

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.86%chance

13931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

959

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

28869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Will the California legislature override any gubernatorial veto by the end of 2027

Sep 14, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.18%chance

5828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Will there be a new census before 2030?

Aug 7, 4:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

12417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Will another US President hold office for more than 2,922 days? (through 2100)

Jul 3, 6:08 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

43.33%chance

5398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

874

Of these potential 2028 candidates for president, who will be the first 3 to officially run?

May 17, 12:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6367

OptionProbability

Gavin newsom

Jb pritzker

Pete buttigieg

Jon ossoff

Ro khanna

Mark kelly

Andy beshear

Rahm emanuel

AOC

Kamala harris

Josh shapiro

Jon stewart

James Talarico

38

38

31

24

24

24

24

21

16

16

16

16

11

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