Consul News

Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?

Jun 1, 9:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.01%chance

9275757

OptionVotes

YES

75845

45839

Will some U.S. consultants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Jan 4, 5:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.21%chance

434820

OptionVotes

YES

1665

531

Is jail programmed for Drew Pavlou in 2025?

Jul 28, 6:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5%chance

161824

OptionVotes

YES

436

Will "Safety consultations for AI lab employees" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 28, 4:37 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.8%chance

11000

OptionVotes

YES

1993

894

By when will the Israel-Iran ceasefire be broken? [Polymarket]

Jun 26, 1:41 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

20990

OptionProbability

Wednesday, December 31

Friday, October 31

Sunday, August 31

Friday, June 27

Friday, July 11

Thursday, July 31

Is Management Consulting Undervalued?

Apr 9, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.14%chance

14524

OptionVotes

YES

993

986

Will my job as a consultant in financial services regulation (UK) be significantly impacted by AI developments by 2035?

Dec 5, 10:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75%chance

681

OptionVotes

YES

193

Will the Boston Consulting Group generate more revenue than McKinsey in 2025?

Oct 30, 4:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.18%chance

378

OptionVotes

YES

107

Why will my solo consulting fail?

Jul 2, 10:40 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

130

OptionProbability

Economy: This was a ZIRP and I can't justify my fees in a tighter environment

Skills: I fail to stay relevant

Skills: The logistical overhead (including taxes, LLC stuff, etc) becomes overwhelming

AI: Supply/demand shifts such that I can't justify my fees

Legal: I get sued and net less than $10k after legal fees and/or penalty

Health: I get a chronic illness

Health: I get an acute injury

Health: I get a workplace injury (RSI or similar)

Do you wish that Manifold would have consulted the community more before pushing the upcoming changes?

Apr 12, 11:58 PM

320

Consul News

Prediction markets for Consul

Prediction markets for Consul

Prediction markets for Consul

Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?

Will some U.S. consultants be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Is jail programmed for Drew Pavlou in 2025?

Will "Safety consultations for AI lab employees" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

By when will the Israel-Iran ceasefire be broken? [Polymarket]

Is Management Consulting Undervalued?

Will my job as a consultant in financial services regulation (UK) be significantly impacted by AI developments by 2035?

Will the Boston Consulting Group generate more revenue than McKinsey in 2025?

Why will my solo consulting fail?

Do you wish that Manifold would have consulted the community more before pushing the upcoming changes?

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