Consul News

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by…?

Feb 28, 7:48 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

2911463

OptionProbability

December 31

June 30

May 15

March 31

March 7

March 15

US or Israel Strike Yemen by…?

Feb 28, 7:55 PMMar 29, 11:59 PM

99716

OptionProbability

March 31

March 2

March 3

March 4

March 7

March 14

Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026?

Feb 28, 7:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

394714

OptionProbability

Military Installation or Static Deployment

Diplomatic Mission

Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air)

Homeland / Sovereign Territory

No Direct Attack in 2026

100

Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?

Jan 25, 4:01 PMJan 20, 5:00 PM

15%chance

212690

OptionVotes

YES

2380

420

Is Management Consulting Undervalued?

Apr 9, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.14%chance

14524

OptionVotes

YES

993

986

Will an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026?

Mar 19, 1:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.49%chance

22496

OptionVotes

YES

117

Will my job as a consultant in financial services regulation (UK) be significantly impacted by AI developments by 2035?

Dec 5, 10:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75%chance

681

OptionVotes

YES

193

Why will my solo consulting fail?

Jul 2, 10:40 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

130

OptionProbability

Economy: This was a ZIRP and I can't justify my fees in a tighter environment

Skills: I fail to stay relevant

Skills: The logistical overhead (including taxes, LLC stuff, etc) becomes overwhelming

AI: Supply/demand shifts such that I can't justify my fees

Legal: I get sued and net less than $10k after legal fees and/or penalty

Health: I get a chronic illness

Health: I get an acute injury

Health: I get a workplace injury (RSI or similar)

Do you wish that Manifold would have consulted the community more before pushing the upcoming changes?

Apr 12, 11:58 PM

320

Consul News

Prediction markets for Consul

Prediction markets for Consul

Prediction markets for Consul

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by…?

US or Israel Strike Yemen by…?

Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026?

Will the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?

Is Management Consulting Undervalued?

Will an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026?

Will my job as a consultant in financial services regulation (UK) be significantly impacted by AI developments by 2035?

Why will my solo consulting fail?

Do you wish that Manifold would have consulted the community more before pushing the upcoming changes?

Latest stories