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Prediction markets for CONSUME EVERYTHING

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?

Mar 29, 4:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.88%chance

7311

OptionProbability

NO

YES

387

208

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?

Mar 14, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.56%chance

8236

OptionProbability

NO

YES

399

283

Will data centers consume more than 10% of US electricity usage by EOY 2028?

May 28, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65%chance

10156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

136

73

Will Github Copilot revert back to their original token usage plan?

Jun 15, 5:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.43%chance

774

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

58

Will Model Intelligence diverge from consumer market share?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMApr 14, 12:30 AM

665

OptionProbability

Yes

N/A (unclear)

No

60

23

17

Will OpenAI's primary consumer AI product still be branded 'ChatGPT' on December 31, 2033?

Jun 15, 2:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.28%chance

564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

Will Based Bodyworks announce Based Condoms by EOY 2027?

Jun 9, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Circuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?

Apr 24, 7:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.37%chance

216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Circuit-level ruling on a bodily-injury microplastics case (as opposed to consumer protection / greenwashing) by EOY2028

Apr 24, 7:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

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