Consumer AI News

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

YES

14073

7523

By what year will AI be able to guide consumers through 2-6 hour home improvement tasks?

Aug 7, 8:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6652

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2038

Before 2036

Before 2034

Before 2030

Before 2032

How fast will you be able to train a GPT-2-level AI on a consumer GPU in 2030?

Feb 7, 12:13 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7459

OptionProbability

100 - 999

10 - 99

0 - 9

1000 - 9999+

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030?

Jun 9, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.6%chance

7295

OptionVotes

YES

241

When will consumer AI be able to read me a book

Apr 25, 4:40 PMJan 1, 5:39 PM

8273

OptionProbability

Before Jan 1, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before January 1, 2027

Before August 1, 2026

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040?

Jun 9, 5:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.8%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

156

Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.04%chance

597

OptionVotes

YES

133

Who will make the most popular consumer AI device in 2026?

Mar 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1196

OptionProbability

Apple

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.76%chance

173

OptionVotes

YES

119

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

OpenAI Dev Day 2026 props

Sep 22, 1:09 AMSep 29, 4:59 PM

557

OptionProbability

A heckler interrupts at any point

OpenAI releases a Grok Bot competitor

OpenAI releases or publicly previews “Persistent Mode”

OpenAI perpetuals increase in value by >2% the next 24 hours after the start of Dev Day

OpenAI publicly reveals the form factor or product name of its Jony Ive/LoveFrom consumer AI device

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

Feb 20, 12:39 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.81%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

122

Consumer AI News

Prediction markets for Consumer AI

Prediction markets for Consumer AI

Prediction markets for Consumer AI

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

By what year will AI be able to guide consumers through 2-6 hour home improvement tasks?

How fast will you be able to train a GPT-2-level AI on a consumer GPU in 2030?

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030?

When will consumer AI be able to read me a book

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040?

Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?

Who will make the most popular consumer AI device in 2026?

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

OpenAI Dev Day 2026 props

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

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