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Prediction markets for Consumer AI

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

7639546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31241

3201

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.26%chance

597484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3407

2480

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

29.98%chance

217286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15272

6552

[OpenAI Startup Fund] Which ideas will OpenAI invest in as part of Converge Two?

Dec 16, 11:47 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

271223

OptionProbability

AI Infrastructure Hardware (GPUs, TPUs, etc.)

SOTA Text-To-Speech

AI Powered Consumer Device (pins, glasses, speakers, etc.)

AI Language Coach (like Speek)

Non-English SOTA LLM

Legal AI (like Harvey)

AI Speech Coach

AI-Powered Kids Toy

94

81

78

66

54

36

33

31

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030?

Jun 9, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.6%chance

7295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

66

How fast will you be able to train a GPT-2-level AI on a consumer GPU in 2030?

Feb 7, 12:13 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3250

OptionProbability

10 - 99

0 - 9

100 - 999

1000 - 9999+

29

28

26

17

First consumer CPU that hits 7 GHz air-cooled unmodded?

Jul 12, 11:21 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

2155

OptionProbability

2031-2035

2026-27

2028-2030

After 2035 or never

2025 or earlier

27

20

20

20

14

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040?

Jun 9, 5:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.8%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

85

Who will make the most popular consumer AI device in 2026?

Mar 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1196

OptionProbability

Apple

Meta

Google

OpenAI

Samsung

Other

Rabbit

Snap

Microsoft

Amazon

Humane

23

17

11

9

7

7

6

5

5

5

4

Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

22

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

Feb 20, 12:39 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.81%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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