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Prediction markets for Consumer AI

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

6.1%chance

8449885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39234

2549

[OpenAI Startup Fund] Which ideas will OpenAI invest in as part of Converge Two?

Dec 16, 11:47 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

281323

OptionProbability

AI Infrastructure Hardware (GPUs, TPUs, etc.)

SOTA Text-To-Speech

AI Powered Consumer Device (pins, glasses, speakers, etc.)

AI Language Coach (like Speek)

Non-English SOTA LLM

Legal AI (like Harvey)

AI Speech Coach

AI-Powered Kids Toy

94

81

78

66

54

36

33

10

How fast will you be able to train a GPT-2-level AI on a consumer GPU in 2030?

Feb 7, 12:13 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5350

OptionProbability

100 - 999

0 - 9

10 - 99

1000 - 9999+

34

26

26

14

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 10% of the world electricity by 2030?

Jun 9, 5:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.6%chance

7295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

66

When will consumer AI be able to read me a book

Apr 25, 4:40 PMJan 1, 5:39 PM

8273

OptionProbability

Before Jan 1, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2028

Before January 1, 2027

Before August 1, 2026

50

39

37

20

First consumer CPU that hits 7 GHz air-cooled unmodded?

Jul 12, 11:21 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM

2155

OptionProbability

2031-2035

2026-27

2028-2030

After 2035 or never

2025 or earlier

27

20

20

20

14

Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 50% of the world electricity by 2040?

Jun 9, 5:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.8%chance

697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

156

85

Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?

Feb 27, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.04%chance

597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

13

Who will make the most popular consumer AI device in 2026?

Mar 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1196

OptionProbability

Apple

Meta

Google

OpenAI

Samsung

Other

Rabbit

Snap

Microsoft

Amazon

Humane

23

17

11

9

7

7

6

5

5

5

4

[Carlini questions] Majority of consumer AI applications will operate autonomously on multi-step tasks by year

Mar 24, 2:19 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

570

OptionProbability

By 1st Jan 2030

By 1st Jan 2029

By 1st Jan 2028

By 1st Jan 2027

By 1st Jan 2026

66

60

46

44

16

Will OpenAI's primary consumer AI product still be branded 'ChatGPT' on December 31, 2033?

Jun 15, 2:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.28%chance

564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

Feb 20, 12:39 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.81%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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