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Top stories

Deutsche Bank Says U.S. Firms, Consumers Bear Brunt of Trump Tariffs

US Domestic Policy

Deutsche Bank Says U.S. Firms, Consumers Bear Brunt of Trump Tariffs

Authors

14

11 days ago

Nearly 90% of Economists Concerned About U.S. Economic Data Quality as Over 30% of CPI Prices Are Estimated by BLS

Nearly 90% of Economists Concerned About U.S. Economic Data Quality as Over 30% of CPI Prices Are Estimated by BLS

Authors

8

5 days ago

Italy's PPI Drops 0.7% MoM, Consumer Confidence Hits 97.2; French Consumer Confidence Rises to 89

Authors

4

18 days ago

Prediction markets for Consumer Price Index

Will the United States' inflation rate be above 3% in 2023, 2024, and 2025?

Dec 10, 2:47 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

2.56%chance

4747523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5303

650

Will US inflation go above 3% before unemployment goes below 4%?

Oct 4, 2:45 PMAug 12, 9:59 AM

88.13%chance

516645

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2725

367

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in Nov. 2025 than it was in Nov. 2024

Jan 22, 9:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.88%chance

86079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13368

7042

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

27.98%chance

292821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1061

956

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.13%chance

522145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1400

798

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will US inflation be >= 2% (annualized) over the next 5 years?

Oct 7, 6:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.24%chance

10728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

225

161

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

1087

Will the 12-month inflation rate announced in January 2026 be lower or equal than 3.0%

Nov 15, 11:55 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40.58%chance

4310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

826

Will the validity of the Consumer Price Index as a measure of inflation be widely questioned during 2025? #Economics

Jan 22, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.11%chance

3175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1126

888

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMOct 10, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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