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Top stories

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Consumer Price Index

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMJan 12, 11:59 PM

79.98%chance

14426761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

501

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

65.95%chance

394742

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1551

345

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.66%chance

582748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1588

742

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.15%chance

191812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will July 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 14, 2:20 AMAug 12, 12:25 PM

16.21%chance

141087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

36

Will U.S. gasoline CPI (SA) fall 3% or more month-over-month in the July 2026 release?

Aug 5, 10:54 PMAug 12, 12:25 PM

82.39%chance

101020

OptionVotes

NO

YES

209

55

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

43.49%chance

7593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

877

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

1087

Will July 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 14, 3:14 AMAug 12, 12:25 PM

18.51%chance

11156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

56

Will the average US inflation between 2024–2034 be more than 2.21%?

Mar 22, 9:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73%chance

8142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

321

128

Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMOct 10, 6:59 AM

47.09%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

943

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