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Top stories

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Consumer Price Index

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMJan 12, 11:59 PM

79.98%chance

14426761

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2000

501

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

65.95%chance

394742

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1551

345

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.66%chance

582748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1588

742

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.15%chance

191812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1109

902

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Will the Massachusetts rent control ballot measure pass?

Dec 18, 3:08 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

43.49%chance

7593

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

877

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

1087

Will AI technology lead to higher or lower US inflation rates by end of June 2027

Feb 9, 5:31 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

5255

OptionProbability

Moderately higher inflation (2.1%-3.0%)

Significantly higher inflation (>3.0%)

Significantly lower inflation (<1.5%)

Moderately lower inflation (1.5%-1.9%)

Minimal impact on inflation (2% or no mention of AI in Fed comms)

37

20

15

14

14

Will July 2026 U.S. import prices rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?

Jun 15, 11:21 PMAug 18, 12:25 PM

37.77%chance

8227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

62

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 4% before it reaches 2%?

Apr 7, 6:36 AMDec 31, 7:28 AM

77%chance

11126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

Inflation: What is the ratio of a 2033 US dollar to a 2023 US dollar? (10x)

Aug 4, 4:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

55.93%chance

6102

OptionProbability

YES

NO

369

270

Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMOct 10, 6:59 AM

47.09%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

943

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