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Top stories

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Morgan Stanley Sees Fed Fixated on CPI and Jobs, Downplays Jackson Hole

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Consumer Price Index

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMJan 12, 11:59 PM

80.33%chance

14427090

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2022

495

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?

Feb 21, 1:25 AMNov 7, 4:59 AM

61%chance

395047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1455

401

Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% before it reaches 0%?

Feb 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.66%chance

582748

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1588

742

Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

242478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?

Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.54%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

1087

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision in November?

May 16, 6:06 AMNov 3, 3:25 AM

2353

OptionProbability

No change

Increase

Decrease

80

16

4

Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 22, 12:04 AMOct 14, 12:29 PM

74.57%chance

5331

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

64

Will the CPI (less food and energy) be above 373.03 on Sept 2027?

Nov 11, 4:03 AMOct 10, 6:59 AM

47.09%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

943

How will GiveWell's 2027 Program salary expenses compare to 2022's?

Dec 3, 7:34 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

230

OptionProbability

More than 150% of 2022

90-110% of 2022

Less than 50% of 2022

70-90% of 2022

110-130% of 2022

130-150% of 2022

50-70% of 2022

21

20

12

12

12

12

11

(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

Feb 7, 10:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

(NO) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (-10% to <20%)

(YES) x (<-10%)

(YES) x (>=20%)

(NO) x (<-10%)

(NO) x (>=20%)

29

25

12

12

12

12

Will November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 26, 1:28 AMDec 10, 1:29 PM

49.46%chance

317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103

97

Will December 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?

Jun 18, 6:10 PMDec 10, 12:25 PM

49.72%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

89

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