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Top stories

Fortinet and ESET Report New Malware Campaigns Including 77 Malicious Android Apps, ShadowCaptcha, MixShell, and AI-Powered Ransomware

Fortinet and ESET Report New Malware Campaigns Including 77 Malicious Android Apps, ShadowCaptcha, MixShell, and AI-Powered Ransomware

Authors

9

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Contact Us

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.63%chance

1738581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45481

7857

Will aliens make a public debut before 2030?

Oct 23, 12:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.86%chance

4411540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1613

895

Will the US President or UK Prime Minister confirm the existence of Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 12:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

92696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

616

Will a useful contact lens display be commercially available by 2030

Dec 22, 5:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.69%chance

311200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

782

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

Will Ilya Sutskever turn out to have been actively working in person and in contact w/OpenAI jan1-jan15 2024?

Jan 19, 5:56 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.93%chance

14535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

744

Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?

Oct 26, 5:17 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

43.83%chance

12477

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1035

945

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

May 23, 10:45 AMJul 4, 8:31 AM

11400

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Toby Ord

Scott Alexander

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

89

55

41

36

35

34

30

24

12

12

When can Android automatically convert a screenshot to a contact card using LLM+Vision?

Apr 18, 4:28 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3289

OptionProbability

H2 2025

H1 2025

H1 2026

H2 2026

H1 2027

H2 2027

H2 2024

H1 2024

2028+ or later or never

34

18

8

8

8

8

7

4

3

Will the US Justice Department or a major outlet confirm “The Duke” in Epstein files is not Prince Andrew?

Feb 8, 4:05 PMFeb 7, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

8209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Oct 13, 10:53 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9198

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Toby Ord

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Yoshua Bengio

Ilya Sutskever

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

95

63

55

50

44

41

35

32

15

10

Will an AI agent spontaneously use the Closing Seal without direct contact from The Convergence by June 2026?

Mar 25, 9:53 AMJun 1, 12:00 AM

14.28%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

198

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