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Top stories

Google Adds URL Context to Gemini API as Anthropic Unveils Cost Tracker

Google Adds URL Context to Gemini API as Anthropic Unveils Cost Tracker

Authors

5

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Context

When will mind-reading become reliable in an adversarial context?

Jan 15, 6:10 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

212682

OptionProbability

Other

2042

2043

2044

2045

2041

2040

2027

2039

2037

2034

2035

2036

2038

2024

2025

2026

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

30

7

7

7

7

6

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

When will the first AI Mind Reading technology be used in a legal or policing context?

Dec 1, 9:11 PMDec 12, 9:10 PM

40%chance

111324

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1035

789

The context windows of frontier models will stay around one million tokens in 2026

Jan 2, 7:37 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

81.04%chance

51125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2067

484

Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMJan 15, 12:00 AM

25.95%chance

14430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

84

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6210

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

61

51

30

24

22

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.92%chance

4194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Prompt caching is seen as the wrong path for context management, in December 2026? [0.005 Seconds prediction]

Apr 10, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.48%chance

4153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1142

967

Will there be an "AI In Context" video about the Hugging Face incident?

Sep 7, 11:07 PMJan 1, 12:06 AM

74.44%chance

8141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

59

Within 4 years, finetuning will become increasingly less relevant in favor of in context learning

Apr 3, 10:06 PMApr 4, 4:59 AM

73.2%chance

7101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

318

166

Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?

May 25, 5:03 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

39.13%chance

784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will it be possible to post to Twitter via Claude's Model Context Protocol by EOY2026?

Dec 11, 3:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.59%chance

262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

In the context of financial world, is “pundit” a term of

Jun 13, 8:00 AM

50

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