Contexts API News

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Feb 17, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71378

OptionProbability

Q1/Q2 '26

Q3/Q4 '26

Q3/Q4 '27

Q3/Q4 '25

Q1/Q2 '27

Q1/Q2 '25

2028 or later

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.3%chance

231152

OptionVotes

YES

510

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?

Jul 1, 12:09 AMSep 25, 12:00 PM

8.93%chance

4363

OptionVotes

YES

211

Will the December 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?

Jul 7, 2:23 AMJan 8, 1:25 PM

18%chance

6330

OptionVotes

YES

202

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6210

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.92%chance

4194

OptionVotes

YES

1022

979

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.78%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

110

Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?

May 25, 5:03 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

39.13%chance

784

OptionVotes

YES

125

OpenAI Dev Day 2026 props

Sep 22, 1:09 AMSep 29, 4:59 PM

557

OptionProbability

A heckler interrupts at any point

OpenAI releases a Grok Bot competitor

OpenAI releases or publicly previews “Persistent Mode”

OpenAI perpetuals increase in value by >2% the next 24 hours after the start of Dev Day

OpenAI publicly reveals the form factor or product name of its Jony Ive/LoveFrom consumer AI device

Contexts API News

Prediction markets for Contexts API

Prediction markets for Contexts API

Prediction markets for Contexts API

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?

Will the December 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?

OpenAI Dev Day 2026 props

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