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Prediction markets for Contexts API

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Feb 17, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51228

OptionProbability

Q1/Q2 '26

Q3/Q4 '26

Q3/Q4 '25

Q1/Q2 '27

Q1/Q2 '25

Q3/Q4 '27

2028 or later

26

22

15

14

10

7

5

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96%chance

221132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

490

20

Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by September 30, 2026?

Jun 15, 12:14 PMOct 1, 12:00 AM

96.66%chance

10753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

471

12

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

New gemini version out in june

Jun 8, 10:37 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

43.45%chance

20420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

Will OpenAI publicly release a GPT-5.6 model by August 31, 2026?

Jun 15, 7:16 PMSep 1, 12:00 AM

92.52%chance

11350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

216

85

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5194

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

56

51

30

24

22

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?

Jun 21, 3:22 AMSep 1, 12:00 AM

40%chance

15176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

91

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.77%chance

593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?

May 25, 5:03 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

39.13%chance

784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

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