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Prediction markets for Contexts API

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

10.51%chance

729656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2429

681

Will DeepSeek release V4 in March 2026?

Mar 3, 10:16 AMApr 3, 3:00 AM

10.18%chance

322671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

27

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Feb 17, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51228

OptionProbability

Q1/Q2 '26

Q3/Q4 '26

Q3/Q4 '25

Q1/Q2 '27

Q1/Q2 '25

Q3/Q4 '27

2028 or later

26

22

15

14

10

7

5

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5 in March 2026?

Mar 3, 10:16 AMApr 3, 3:00 AM

10.32%chance

9589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

251

67

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4111

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

83

81

50

50

32

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.77%chance

593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?

Mar 2, 10:12 AMJun 2, 10:59 PM

48.44%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

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