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Prediction markets for Contexts API

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92%chance

241569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

339

29

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Feb 17, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71378

OptionProbability

Q1/Q2 '26

Q3/Q4 '26

Q3/Q4 '27

Q3/Q4 '25

Q1/Q2 '27

Q1/Q2 '25

2028 or later

23

20

19

14

13

7

5

Will Google release a model officially named "Gemini 4 Flash" by November 13, 2026?

Oct 14, 5:14 AMNov 14, 7:59 AM

2.31%chance

14785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

762

33

What version number will Anthropic's next Claude Fable model carry? (released by Nov 30, 2026)

Oct 30, 12:54 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

8767

OptionProbability

Fable 5.5

No new Fable model by Nov 30

Some other version number

Fable 5.2

Fable 6

78

15

4

3

0

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6210

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

61

51

30

24

22

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.92%chance

4194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.86%chance

8131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?

May 25, 5:03 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

39.13%chance

784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will the next Astra 6.1+ beat the next Fable 5.2+ on Epoch's ECI? (Apr 30 snapshot)

Nov 2, 7:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.35%chance

569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

94

How many executive orders will Trump sign in November 2026? (Federal Register count)

Nov 4, 3:47 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

120

OptionProbability

3–4

5–6

7–8

9–10

0–2

11 or more

18

18

18

18

14

14

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