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Prediction markets for Contexts API

Will OpenAI release a model referred to as "GPT-6" before June 1st, 2026?

Mar 16, 4:29 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

8.98%chance

8010287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2746

647

Claude Mythos output cost ($/Mtok)

Mar 27, 8:35 AMJul 1, 4:00 AM

428755

OptionProbability

≥ $15/Mtok

≥$25/Mtok

≥$75/Mtok

≥$50/Mtok

≥$100/Mtok

≥$150/Mtok

≥$200/Mtok

≥$350/Mtok

96

95

87

82

79

31

15

8

Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?

Mar 2, 10:12 AMJun 2, 10:59 PM

5.92%chance

181841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

25

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Feb 17, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51228

OptionProbability

Q1/Q2 '26

Q3/Q4 '26

Q3/Q4 '25

Q1/Q2 '27

Q1/Q2 '25

Q3/Q4 '27

2028 or later

26

22

15

14

10

7

5

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.73%chance

21924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

236

42

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will ChatGPT get more Wikipedia pageviews than Donald Trump in May 2026?

Apr 3, 9:37 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

10380

OptionVotes

NO

YES

207

191

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.02%chance

3192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

981

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5185

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

65

56

30

24

22

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.77%chance

593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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