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Prediction markets for Contexts API

Will Anthropic publicly release Claude Opus 4.9 by August 31, 2026?

Jun 21, 3:22 AMSep 1, 12:00 AM

1%chance

271474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

14

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Feb 17, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71378

OptionProbability

Q1/Q2 '26

Q3/Q4 '26

Q3/Q4 '27

Q3/Q4 '25

Q1/Q2 '27

Q1/Q2 '25

2028 or later

23

20

19

14

13

7

5

Will there be a publicly available AI with Anthropic Mythos-level capabilities before 2027?

Apr 15, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.3%chance

231152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

510

20

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6204

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

70

51

30

24

22

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.92%chance

4194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Will the December 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?

Jul 7, 2:23 AMJan 8, 1:25 PM

44%chance

5129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will OpenAI keep the Sora/Videos API available past September 24, 2026?

Jul 1, 12:09 AMSep 25, 12:00 PM

8.93%chance

3123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

83

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.78%chance

5103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Will any frontier model support a 10M+ token context window before 2028?

May 25, 5:03 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

39.13%chance

784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

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