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Prediction markets for Continue

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Oct 24, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.33%chance

8313325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1172

1009

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

88.63%chance

436111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

255

Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?

Jan 14, 12:24 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

89.32%chance

845368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3812

1135

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.9%chance

234031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

579

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

63.8%chance

233030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1868

1229

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Mar 26, 6:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.93%chance

862837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

1371

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Aug 23, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.39%chance

272634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

912

Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.42%chance

10917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1800

556

By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?

Jan 3, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

10446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

964

If Manifold Markets as it is now goes out of business, it continues on in a useful form

May 2, 5:52 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

80.02%chance

15413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

929

Straw Hat protests continue in 2026

Jan 6, 4:44 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.02%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

Will WeChat be available in the Google play store continuously through mid 2028?

Jan 2, 8:11 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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