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Prediction markets for Continue

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Oct 24, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81.12%chance

9715447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2021

700

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

91.3%chance

446991

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3062

215

Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?

Jan 14, 12:24 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

87.8%chance

875712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3425

1185

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

84.8%chance

315520

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3468

721

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.44%chance

244056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1753

571

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Mar 26, 6:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.83%chance

893093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1791

1194

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Aug 23, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.5%chance

282757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

933

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

May 28, 11:55 PMApr 8, 10:59 PM

31.49%chance

13707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1475

678

By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?

Jan 3, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

10446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

964

If Manifold Markets as it is now goes out of business, it continues on in a useful form

May 2, 5:52 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

80.02%chance

15413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

929

Straw Hat protests continue in 2026

Jan 6, 4:44 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.02%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

Will WeChat be available in the Google play store continuously through mid 2028?

Jan 2, 8:11 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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