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Prediction markets for Continue

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

94.45%chance

477995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

163

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Aug 23, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.18%chance

596505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

440

Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?

Jan 14, 12:24 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

87.8%chance

875712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3425

1185

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.96%chance

254081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1778

563

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Mar 26, 6:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.81%chance

923434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2068

1053

Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

80.85%chance

121176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2055

487

Will Scaling Laws for Neural Language Model continue to hold till the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

68.34%chance

191064

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1171

900

Will ASI be achieved less than a year after continual learning?

May 28, 11:55 PMApr 8, 10:59 PM

29.94%chance

15762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1530

654

By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?

Jan 3, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

10446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

964

If Manifold Markets as it is now goes out of business, it continues on in a useful form

May 2, 5:52 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

80.02%chance

15413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

929

If AI does not wipe us out by 2033, will there be continued progress in the AI sector?

Aug 18, 8:51 AMJan 1, 2:59 PM

78.97%chance

17335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

946

Will USA break its continuous human presence in outer space before 2040?

Sep 18, 5:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.56%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

933

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