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Prediction markets for Continue

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Oct 24, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.19%chance

8313455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

1029

On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark

Jun 13, 9:21 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

88.63%chance

436111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2699

255

Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?

Jan 14, 12:24 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

87.8%chance

875712

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3425

1185

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Aug 23, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.9%chance

234031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1728

579

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

72.96%chance

243510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2348

1009

Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?

Mar 26, 6:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.1%chance

893087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

1201

Will there by a major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2027?

Aug 23, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.84%chance

272687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1155

866

Will Europe find a peaceful agreement with Iran to pass the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 while the US/Iran war continues?

Mar 18, 5:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.49%chance

171746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

By 2030 will we have video-to-video where an LLM can continue any video prompt in any way you like?

Jan 3, 1:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

10446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

964

If Manifold Markets as it is now goes out of business, it continues on in a useful form

May 2, 5:52 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

80.02%chance

15413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

929

Straw Hat protests continue in 2026

Jan 6, 4:44 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.02%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

Will WeChat be available in the Google play store continuously through mid 2028?

Jan 2, 8:11 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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