Continuing Resolution News

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

99443812

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2030

Before January 2029

Before January 2028

Before January 2027

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

27.16%chance

750336500

OptionVotes

YES

6244

3509

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

7827509

OptionVotes

YES

1970

1790

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Jan 22, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.75%chance

11126648

OptionVotes

YES

17360

3293

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3019974

OptionProbability

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1117551

OptionProbability

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

Sun Country

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74%chance

4811249

OptionVotes

YES

1687

593

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026

Jan 13, 11:54 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

62.66%chance

466733

OptionVotes

YES

1296

772

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.75%chance

516280

OptionVotes

YES

3348

2500

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.59%chance

234573

OptionVotes

YES

13507

7404

If humanity is still alive in 2035, what will be the reason?

Jul 2, 2:51 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

282721

OptionProbability

AI winter

Benign superintelligence

Other

Effective international moratorium

Lithium deficiency causes Alzheimer's?

Aug 19, 6:34 AMSep 2, 6:14 AM

27.13%chance

172391

OptionVotes

YES

2875

1480

Continuing Resolution News

Prediction markets for Continuing Resolution

Prediction markets for Continuing Resolution

Prediction markets for Continuing Resolution

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Next airline to default

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?

If humanity is still alive in 2035, what will be the reason?

Lithium deficiency causes Alzheimer's?

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