Continuing Resolution News

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Nov 23, 6:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 PM

103447885

OptionProbability

[All non-meta options for before 2030 are continuously under 50% for any 4 week period before 2025]

Before January 2040

Before January 2027

Before January 2028

Before January 2029

Before January 2030

By January 2024

By February 2024

By March 2024

By April 2024

By June 2024

Before July 2024

Before January 2025

Before January 2026

[Any month is continuously over 50% for any 6 week period less than one year before it arrives, before January 2026]

[Any month is continuously over 50% for 24 hours because of a relevant news story and resolves NO, before January 2026]

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

783394684

OptionVotes

YES

6715

3343

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

25072880

OptionVotes

YES

7852

5623

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

35.43%chance

66790

OptionVotes

YES

20520

10809

Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

65.01%chance

65869

OptionVotes

YES

13630

7337

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

35.03%chance

55068

OptionVotes

YES

13618

7343

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

30.83%chance

43501

OptionVotes

YES

13499

7975

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

40.01%chance

53433

OptionVotes

YES

12045

8363

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

May 4, 5:53 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

49.68%chance

42140

OptionVotes

YES

10064

9936

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.28%chance

51098

OptionVotes

YES

10057

9944

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

52.02%chance

41084

OptionVotes

YES

10005

9995

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

May 4, 8:35 PMMay 31, 11:00 PM

50.35%chance

31051

OptionVotes

YES

11051

8806

Continuing Resolution News

Prediction markets for Continuing Resolution

Prediction markets for Continuing Resolution

Prediction markets for Continuing Resolution

When will we know that any past UFO was really Aliens, or anything Worldview-Shattering?

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Will Vic NEM 2027 annual average wholesale price exceed A$105/MWh?

Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?

Will Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.8 million tonnes?

Will Vic NEM 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed A$115/MWh?

Will OMIE Spain 2028 annual average wholesale price exceed €65/MWh?

Will Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?

Will Nord Pool 2027 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

Will Nord Pool 2028 system price annual average exceed €45/MWh?

Will the OMIE Spain annual average wholesale electricity price for calendar year 2027 exceed 60 EUR per MWh?

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