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Prediction markets for Control Center

Finland undersea cable break - cause will be:

Dec 26, 10:54 AMSep 1, 9:59 PM

349047

OptionProbability

Sabotage

Shipping mishap

Cause will not be found

Other

On-land mishap

98

18

7

4

2

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2030?

May 12, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1038418

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

Kharkiv uninhabitable (because of nuclear strike for example) on Dec 31, 2030

70

39

2

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

[Metaculus] Will there be reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 before 2026?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 2, 2:00 PM

15.45%chance

284135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

Who will control Kharkiv on December 31, 2025?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

271840

OptionProbability

Ukraine

Russia

93

11

Before the end of 2025, the Russians will at least once try to carry out a large offensive on the city of Kharkov

Apr 3, 11:55 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

55.11%chance

20700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

860

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.22%chance

17239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

991

Number of measles deaths reported by CDC in the US in 2026?

Jul 9, 8:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4172

OptionProbability

0-10

11-25

26-50

51-100

101+

69

12

7

7

6

American life expectancy decreases in 2025?

Apr 26, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.65%chance

7158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

158

63

[Metaculus] Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

Nov 9, 12:20 AMJan 2, 5:00 AM

24.9%chance

7117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

102

[Metaculus] Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 2, 8:00 AM

17.83%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

81

Will a pathogenic bacteria be designated a Biosafety Level 4 Organism by the CDC before 2040?

Aug 2, 4:55 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

54.38%chance

319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

81

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