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Prediction markets for Convention

Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Feb 15, 5:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.96%chance

302586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1602

624

JD Vance will be the republican nominee for pres in 2028 and gives a major anti-AI speech at the convention

Apr 14, 6:51 PMAug 30, 10:59 PM

9%chance

142180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will the United States of America hold a Constitutional Convention by 2050?

Jun 3, 6:31 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

34.3%chance

221821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1384

722

Will there be an EU convention to amend the treaties during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 18, 2:57 PMJun 9, 9:59 PM

44.92%chance

71533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1584

1422

Will an AI Tutor (LLM personalized for each student) replace conventional teaching by 2035?

Mar 11, 10:02 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

66.52%chance

201440

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1527

526

Will there be a US Constitutional Convention before 2030?

Apr 14, 4:55 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

8.44%chance

291202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

976

943

By 2030 will more people regularly consume visual novels than conventional novels (paper and ebook)?

Feb 22, 9:40 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11%chance

16793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1210

942

Will Canada sign the Framework Convention on AI before 2026?

Sep 9, 7:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.55%chance

5400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1239

807

Will there be a US Constitutional Convention before 2100?

Apr 14, 6:55 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

37.73%chance

14250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

995

Will any furry convention be cancelled or moved for political reasons by the end of 2026?

Mar 15, 6:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

9182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?

Nov 26, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.97%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

301

187

Will I have gone to a Star Trek convention by EOY 2025?

May 29, 8:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.14%chance

8120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

100

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