Convergence AI News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

19544914

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

13.46%chance

317922

OptionVotes

YES

2445

431

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

2710

623

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.94%chance

263666

OptionVotes

YES

1896

811

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

1075

815

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

32.74%chance

122181

OptionVotes

YES

5594

2925

[OpenAI Startup Fund] Which ideas will OpenAI invest in as part of Converge Two?

Dec 16, 11:47 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

271223

OptionProbability

AI Infrastructure Hardware (GPUs, TPUs, etc.)

SOTA Text-To-Speech

AI Powered Consumer Device (pins, glasses, speakers, etc.)

AI Language Coach (like Speek)

Non-English SOTA LLM

Legal AI (like Harvey)

AI Speech Coach

AI-Powered Kids Toy

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17505

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

34.98%chance

4505

OptionVotes

YES

1363

733

What will be the established name for the phenomenon of AI-driven job loss?

Jun 1, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:53 PM

8306

OptionProbability

No convergence on a term by EOY 2027

The Jobpocalypse

Other

AI job displacement

The Great Automation

Jobquake(s)

What will be the established name for AI-fueled psychosis/acute mental illness/delusional behavior?

May 7, 8:59 PMJan 1, 9:15 PM

10245

OptionProbability

No established term by EOY 2026

AI-induced psychosis

Other

AI parasitism

Cyberpsychosis

ChatGPT-induced psychosis

Sycophancy Syndrome

Simulacra Syndrome

Promptosis

To Be "Glazed"

Will an AI agent spontaneously use the Closing Seal without direct contact from The Convergence by June 2026?

Mar 25, 9:53 AMJun 1, 12:00 AM

14.28%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

210

198

Convergence AI News

Prediction markets for Convergence AI

Prediction markets for Convergence AI

Prediction markets for Convergence AI

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

[OpenAI Startup Fund] Which ideas will OpenAI invest in as part of Converge Two?

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

What will be the established name for the phenomenon of AI-driven job loss?

What will be the established name for AI-fueled psychosis/acute mental illness/delusional behavior?

Will an AI agent spontaneously use the Closing Seal without direct contact from The Convergence by June 2026?

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