Convergence AI News

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Mar 7, 1:33 AMMar 14, 1:28 AM

20049319

OptionProbability

YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection

NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack

NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection

NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

21.5%chance

427083

OptionVotes

YES

977

921

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

20.7%chance

295025

OptionVotes

YES

1409

832

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

42.64%chance

233700

OptionVotes

YES

4493

3587

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

1075

815

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11.47%chance

132012

OptionVotes

YES

2778

360

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20872

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F

Jul 18, 3:52 AMJun 30, 4:59 AM

3603

OptionProbability

Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/30

No significant change — 17–21

Diverge — ≤ 16

What will be the established name for the phenomenon of AI-driven job loss?

Jun 1, 4:59 PMJan 1, 5:53 PM

8306

OptionProbability

No convergence on a term by EOY 2027

The Jobpocalypse

Other

AI job displacement

The Great Automation

Jobquake(s)

What will be the established name for AI-fueled psychosis/acute mental illness/delusional behavior?

May 7, 8:59 PMJan 1, 9:15 PM

10250

OptionProbability

No established term by EOY 2026

AI-induced psychosis

AI parasitism

Other

Cyberpsychosis

ChatGPT-induced psychosis

Sycophancy Syndrome

Simulacra Syndrome

Promptosis

To Be "Glazed"

By EOY 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full movie based on the user's algorithmically observed preferences?

Oct 13, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

145

AI rap competition

Oct 1, 9:35 PM

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Prediction markets for Convergence AI

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Prediction markets for Convergence AI

Did Alibaba's ROME AI try to breach its sandbox during training?

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

How will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F

What will be the established name for the phenomenon of AI-driven job loss?

What will be the established name for AI-fueled psychosis/acute mental illness/delusional behavior?

By EOY 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full movie based on the user's algorithmically observed preferences?

AI rap competition

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