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Prediction markets for Conversations 2025

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

Aug 25, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.15%chance

515962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2367

423

[M100 sub] Will there be a well-reviewed video game with LLM-based NPC dialogue by 2026 (no mods)?

Sep 28, 9:56 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

23.44%chance

444618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1652

532

Will Congress confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2025?

May 6, 2:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.48%chance

102735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3522

287

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will bitcoin hit $200,000 or $20,000 in 2025?

May 5, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13%chance

102436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

6. An AI system will pass the Turing test for speech.

Dec 27, 8:17 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.97%chance

142307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1564

640

Will Destiny talk to @Mira?

Jan 5, 12:17 AMJun 10, 6:59 AM

1%chance

61656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

62

Will Substack have a $10B valuation by June 7, 2032?

Jun 7, 9:31 PMJun 7, 11:59 PM

23.19%chance

8825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

557

Will Jens Spahn have to step down by the end of ... ?

Jul 15, 11:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5386

CDA overtakes VVD at 2025 Dutch Elections

Jun 23, 8:55 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

5269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will The Nature Conservancy set up a fourth Global Debt Conversion by end of 2025?

Sep 27, 6:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.85%chance

481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

114

Will I be a cracked VFX artist in 2025? Mentor's response:

Jul 12, 5:27 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

325

OptionProbability

Yes

...What?

66

55

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