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Prediction markets for Convert

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Dec 30, 8:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1.76%chance

192416010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3580

964

Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?

Jun 18, 3:15 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

10.72%chance

10523881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

435

Will Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?

Aug 24, 1:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.43%chance

206292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4644

215

Will Richard Dawkins ever convert to faith?

Aug 14, 12:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.51%chance

234461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5241

191

Will Apple release an accessory that converts the iPhone into a VR/AR headset (VisionPro) by end of 2026? [~3 years]

Apr 12, 3:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.07%chance

274304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3745

622

Bart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?

Sep 30, 6:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.71%chance

32050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3050

328

Will Apple release an accessory that converts the iPhone into a VR/AR headset (VisionPro) by end of 2028? (~5 years)

Apr 13, 7:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.09%chance

231501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

874

Will Sam Altman convert to Christian/Mormon Transhumanism by 2035?

Mar 24, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.65%chance

131230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

946

Will the US convert to the metric system before 2050?

Aug 25, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.96%chance

23670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

911

Will the ultimate end of humanity be converting as much of the universe into minds experiencing pleasure as possible?

Aug 26, 5:43 PMAug 27, 3:59 AM

20.27%chance

24623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1251

908

Will Ivanka Trump convert to any religion other than Judaism by 2030?

Mar 3, 1:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.54%chance

15401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

917

Will at least one U.S. State or the Federal Government mandate converting road signs to the metric system before 2035?

Jun 29, 7:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.18%chance

10200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

963

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